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Dallas Stars vs Vancouver Canucks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 5, 2026

NHL matchup

Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 5, 2026.

December 5, 2026 · 10:00 PM MBT
Away

Dallas Stars

10-5-2

56.6% Model pick
at
Home

Vancouver Canucks

3-16-1

43.4%
Model V2 pick: Dallas Stars at 56.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vancouver Canucks logo
Home team

Vancouver Canucks

43.4%
Fair American +130
Fair decimal 2.3
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 5, 2026.

Dallas Stars

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-14.3%

Value Picks

Bets
0
Record
0-0
Net units
0.00
ROI
—

Market Favourite

Bets
15
Record
9-6
Net units
-0.62
ROI
-4.1%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

53:27 together · 10 games

xG share53.8%
Corsi for / against
39 / 43
Fenwick for / against
29 / 23
Corsi share
47.6%
Fenwick share
55.8%
xG for / against
2.03 / 1.74
Defense pair

81:03 together · 8 games

xG share69.2%
Corsi for / against
92 / 57
Fenwick for / against
63 / 31
Corsi share
61.7%
Fenwick share
67.0%
xG for / against
4.74 / 2.11
All observed combinations

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

57:15 together · 9 games

xG share49.5%
Corsi for / against
67 / 51
Fenwick for / against
45 / 29
Corsi share
56.8%
Fenwick share
60.8%
xG for / against
2.56 / 2.61
Defense pair

99:51 together · 10 games

xG share36.0%
Corsi for / against
79 / 94
Fenwick for / against
46 / 70
Corsi share
45.7%
Fenwick share
39.7%
xG for / against
2.67 / 4.76
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 5, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
112
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
33.9

Leevi Meriläinen

Vancouver Canucks · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
125
Save %
86.4
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
33.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

xG for / game
3.45
xG against / game
2.68
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vancouver Canucks

xG for / game
2.45
xG against / game
3.36
xG differential / game
-0.91

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Dallas Stars

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.0
Corsi share (%)
51.2
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
58.4
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 27.2 · Shooting: 12.1% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
49.2
Corsi share (%)
46.8
Fenwick share (%)
45.4
Faceoff win %
47.6
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 22.4 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.4 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 5, 2026.

Dallas Stars

W. Johnston Cold · -0.58 P/GP

5 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.40 points/game
0.98 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.4
C. Blackwell Hot · +0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.60 points/game
0.21 points/game across 140 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.6
J. Robertson Hot · +0.34 P/GP

5 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 1.40 points/game
1.06 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
2.8
O. Bäck Hot · +0.32 P/GP

4 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.50 points/game
0.18 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
0.5
M. Heiskanen Hot · +0.31 P/GP

3 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 1.00 points/game
0.69 points/game across 139 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
2.0

Vancouver Canucks

Z. Buium Hot · +0.72 P/GP

3 games vs Dallas Stars · 1.00 points/game
0.28 points/game across 93 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
0.7
B. Boeser Cold · -0.50 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.20 points/game
0.70 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.4
D. O'Connor Cold · -0.33 P/GP

5 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.33 points/game across 180 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.6
L. Ohgren Cold · -0.30 P/GP

4 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.30 points/game across 108 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3
P. Cotter Cold · -0.26 P/GP

4 games vs Dallas Stars · 0.00 points/game
0.26 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.3
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
22Points7
0.647Points %0.175
49Goals for56
41Goals against90
8Goal differential-34
W1Current streakL6
Road versus home
Dallas Stars DAL road
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN home
7Games9
4Wins1
10Points2
7Goal differential-13
Last 10 games
Dallas Stars DAL
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
7-2-1Record1-9-0
15Points2
33Goals for26
28Goals against45
5Goal differential-19
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Dallas Stars DAL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Vancouver Canucks VAN 4 wins
Total goals35 – 27
Goal differential +8 / -8
Goals per game3.5 / 2.7
Shots per game27.8 / 26.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 2, 2026
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
6 - 1 37 - 14 View
Nov 20, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 2 24 - 36 View
Oct 16, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
5 - 3 26 - 31 View
Apr 8, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
6 - 5 32 - 28 View
Mar 9, 2025
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 1 19 - 23 View
Jan 31, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 5 29 - 16 View
Mar 28, 2024
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
3 - 1 34 - 28 View
Dec 21, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 4 20 - 36 View
Nov 4, 2023
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
0 - 2 27 - 28 View
Mar 25, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
3 - 1 24 - 26 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DAL VAN