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Colorado Avalanche vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 12, 2026.

November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Colorado Avalanche

10-6-2

52.9% Model pick
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

11-6-1

47.1%
Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 52.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Colorado Avalanche logo
Away team

Colorado Avalanche

52.9%
Fair American -112
Fair decimal 1.89
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

47.1%
Fair American +112
Fair decimal 2.12
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 12, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:15 together · 10 games

xG share55.4%
Corsi for / against
122 / 82
Fenwick for / against
92 / 64
Corsi share
59.8%
Fenwick share
59.0%
xG for / against
6.39 / 5.15
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:06 together · 6 games

xG share45.3%
Corsi for / against
36 / 42
Fenwick for / against
22 / 37
Corsi share
46.2%
Fenwick share
37.3%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.22
Defense pair

115:11 together · 9 games

xG share49.0%
Corsi for / against
106 / 100
Fenwick for / against
77 / 85
Corsi share
51.5%
Fenwick share
47.5%
xG for / against
5.18 / 5.40
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 12, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
117
Save %
91.5
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
35.0

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
92.2
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.09
xG differential / game
-0.03

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.26
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.35

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.6
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.7
Faceoff win %
48.4
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 30.4 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.3
Corsi share (%)
52.0
Fenwick share (%)
51.4
Faceoff win %
55.2
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 12, 2026.

Colorado Avalanche

J. Manson Hot · +1.34 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.67 points/game
0.33 points/game across 137 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
2.3
B. Nelson Hot · +0.48 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.20 points/game
0.72 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
2
Points
6
Shots / game
1.8
C. Makar Hot · +0.39 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.50 points/game
1.11 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
4
Points
6
Shots / game
2.5
M. Necas Cold · -0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.80 points/game
1.19 points/game across 170 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
2.2
A. Lehkonen Cold · -0.37 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.33 points/game
0.71 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.0

Ottawa Senators

N. Cousins Hot · +0.74 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.00 points/game
0.26 points/game across 146 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.3
T. Kleven Hot · +0.57 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.75 points/game
0.18 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
3
Points
3
Shots / game
1.3
M. Amadio Cold · -0.43 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.5
W. Foegele Cold · -0.43 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
P. Tomasino Cold · -0.41 P/GP

3 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.41 points/game across 71 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
22Points23
0.611Points %0.639
72Goals for58
56Goals against54
16Goal differential4
W1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Colorado Avalanche COL road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
8Games8
3Wins6
6Points12
-4Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Colorado Avalanche COL
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
5-4-1Record5-4-1
11Points11
36Goals for35
32Goals against34
4Goal differential1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Colorado Avalanche COL 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 2 wins
Total goals57 – 35
Goal differential +22 / -22
Goals per game5.7 / 3.5
Shots per game32.4 / 30.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 28, 2026
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 5 18 - 23 View
Jan 8, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
2 - 8 31 - 34 View
Mar 20, 2025
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 1 33 - 16 View
Oct 27, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 5 30 - 32 View
Jan 16, 2024
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
7 - 4 34 - 40 View
Dec 21, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
4 - 6 45 - 39 View
Mar 16, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 4 30 - 36 View
Jan 14, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
0 - 7 29 - 33 View
Dec 4, 2021
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 6 31 - 34 View
Nov 22, 2021
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche
5 - 7 21 - 40 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings COL OTT