Calgary Flames vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | December 11, 2026

December 11, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT

Away

Calgary Flames

8-9-1

40.5%

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

59.5% Model pick

Model V2 pick: Philadelphia Flyers at 59.5%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Calgary Flames

40.5%

Fair American +147

Fair decimal 2.47

Calculate value

Home team

Philadelphia Flyers

59.5%

Fair American -147

Fair decimal 1.68

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 11, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets: 5
Record: 2-3
Net units: -0.20
ROI: -4.0%

Value Picks

Bets: 15
Record: 6-9
Net units: -0.22
ROI: -1.5%

Market Favourite

Bets: 2
Record: 0-2
Net units: -2.00
ROI: -100.0%

Full team betting results

Philadelphia Flyers

All Model Picks

Bets: 1
Record: 0-1
Net units: -1.00
ROI: -100.0%

Value Picks

Bets: 8
Record: 3-5
Net units: -0.11
ROI: -1.4%

Market Favourite

Bets: 5
Record: 1-4
Net units: -3.23
ROI: -64.6%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

88:36 together · 8 games

xG share44.4%

Corsi for / against: 79 / 98
Fenwick for / against: 59 / 75
Corsi share: 44.6%
Fenwick share: 44.0%
xG for / against: 3.92 / 4.91

Defense pair

135:01 together · 10 games

xG share42.4%

Corsi for / against: 123 / 148
Fenwick for / against: 91 / 108
Corsi share: 45.4%
Fenwick share: 45.7%
xG for / against: 4.67 / 6.35

All observed combinations

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

76:15 together · 9 games

xG share55.6%

Corsi for / against: 55 / 68
Fenwick for / against: 33 / 41
Corsi share: 44.7%
Fenwick share: 44.6%
xG for / against: 2.69 / 2.14

Defense pair

106:10 together · 10 games

xG share49.9%

Corsi for / against: 95 / 92
Fenwick for / against: 69 / 66
Corsi share: 50.8%
Fenwick share: 51.1%
xG for / against: 4.73 / 4.75

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Philadelphia Flyers

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 11, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Calgary Flames

D. Wolf

GP: 10
Starts: 9
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.869
GAA: 3.75

D. Cooley

GP: 8
Starts: 8
Wins: 5
Save %: 0.913
GAA: 2.71

A. Sergeev

GP: 1
Starts: 1
Wins: 0
Save %: 0.848
GAA: 5.00

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar

GP: 10
Starts: 10
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.880
GAA: 3.27

J. Woll

GP: 10
Starts: 10
Wins: 2
Save %: 0.901
GAA: 2.91

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Devin Cooley

Calgary Flames · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 141
Save %: 94.3
Goals allowed: 8
Close-range shots %: 31.9

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 129
Save %: 88.4
Goals allowed: 15
Close-range shots %: 31.0

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game: 2.46
xG against / game: 3.07
xG differential / game: -0.61

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game: 3.06
xG against / game: 3.11
xG differential / game: -0.04

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 52.2
Corsi share (%): 46.8
Fenwick share (%): 46.7
Faceoff win %: 45.1
Penalties / game: 3.7

Shots / game: 25.4 · Shooting: 11.4% · Avg distance: 35.3 ft

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 56.8
Corsi share (%): 50.5
Fenwick share (%): 49.7
Faceoff win %: 50.6
Penalties / game: 3.8

Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 29.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 11, 2026.

Calgary Flames

M. Pospisil Hot · +1.07 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.33 points/game
0.26 points/game across 118 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 4
Points: 4
Shots / game: 1.3

C. Zary Hot · +0.87 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.25 points/game
0.38 points/game across 126 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.0

Y. Sharangovich Hot · +0.87 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.25 points/game
0.38 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 3
Points: 5
Shots / game: 1.5

Z. Whitecloud Hot · +0.48 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.67 points/game
0.19 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 0
Points: 2
Shots / game: 1.3

R. Strome Cold · -0.46 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.46 points/game across 149 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.3

Philadelphia Flyers

M. Bunting Hot · +2.00 P/GP

5 games vs Calgary Flames · 2.40 points/game
0.40 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals: 4
Assists: 8
Points: 12
Shots / game: 3.4

T. Zegras Cold · -0.54 P/GP

5 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.20 points/game
0.74 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Points: 1
Shots / game: 1.4

T. Sanheim Cold · -0.42 P/GP

5 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.00 points/game
0.42 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.2

O. Tippett Cold · -0.37 P/GP

5 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.20 points/game
0.57 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 0
Points: 1
Shots / game: 2.8

C. Dvorak Cold · -0.33 P/GP

5 games vs Calgary Flames · 0.20 points/game
0.53 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Points: 1
Shots / game: 2.2

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

CGY	Metric	PHI
17	Points	15
0.472	Points %	0.375
46	Goals for	45
63	Goals against	66
-17	Goal differential	-21
W1	Current streak	W1

Road versus home

CGY road	Metric	PHI home
8	Games	10
2	Wins	3
5	Points	9
-17	Goal differential	-10

Last 10 games

CGY	Metric	PHI
6-3-1	Record	4-4-2
13	Points	10
29	Goals for	31
26	Goals against	32
3	Goal differential	-1

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

CGY 7 wins

10 games reviewed

PHI 3 wins

Total goals38 – 25

Goal differential +13 / -13

Goals per game3.8 / 2.5

Shots per game29.4 / 31.1

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Nov 8, 2026	Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames	3 - 4	35 - 26	View
Dec 31, 2025	Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames	1 - 5	26 - 25	View
Nov 2, 2025	Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers	2 - 1	21 - 18	View
Mar 4, 2025	Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers	6 - 3	34 - 29	View
Oct 12, 2024	Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames	3 - 6	40 - 32	View
Jan 6, 2024	Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers	2 - 3	24 - 42	View
Dec 31, 2023	Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames	3 - 4	31 - 33	View
Feb 20, 2023	Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames	4 - 3	22 - 35	View
Nov 21, 2022	Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers	5 - 2	30 - 25	View
Nov 16, 2021	Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers	1 - 2	34 - 43	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Calgary Flames vs Philadelphia Flyers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 11, 2026

Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers

Calgary Flames

Philadelphia Flyers

Model V2 versus market

Calgary Flames

Philadelphia Flyers

Team performance leading into this game

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Philadelphia Flyers

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Calgary Flames

Philadelphia Flyers

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Calgary Flames

Philadelphia Flyers

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Calgary Flames

Philadelphia Flyers

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games