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Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 22, 2026

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 22, 2026.

November 22, 2026 · 5:00 PM MBT
Away

Buffalo Sabres

8-6-3

42.1%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

11-4-2

57.9% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 57.9%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Buffalo Sabres logo
Away team

Buffalo Sabres

42.1%
Fair American +138
Fair decimal 2.38
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

57.9%
Fair American -138
Fair decimal 1.73
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 22, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.52
ROI
-12.7%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-4.07
ROI
-67.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
9
Record
6-3
Net units
1.24
ROI
13.8%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

64:53 together · 9 games

xG share47.4%
Corsi for / against
75 / 69
Fenwick for / against
55 / 57
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
49.1%
xG for / against
3.74 / 4.14
Defense pair

105:44 together · 8 games

xG share50.6%
Corsi for / against
114 / 106
Fenwick for / against
73 / 74
Corsi share
51.8%
Fenwick share
49.7%
xG for / against
4.43 / 4.32
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

81:42 together · 9 games

xG share62.2%
Corsi for / against
90 / 60
Fenwick for / against
68 / 42
Corsi share
60.0%
Fenwick share
61.8%
xG for / against
4.41 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 22, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
123
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
30.1

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
128
Save %
88.3
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
3.65
xG differential / game
-0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
0.50

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.2
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.6
Faceoff win %
43.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 30.3 · Shooting: 10.2% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.3
Corsi share (%)
55.4
Fenwick share (%)
54.6
Faceoff win %
51.7
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 14.1% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 22, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

R. Dahlin Hot · +1.11 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 2.00 points/game
0.89 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
8
Points
10
Shots / game
3.0
Z. Metsa Hot · +0.56 P/GP

3 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.67 points/game
0.11 points/game across 55 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.0
J. Doan Hot · +0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 1.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 144 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
2
Points
5
Shots / game
1.8
T. Thompson Hot · +0.42 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 1.40 points/game
0.98 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
6
Points
7
Shots / game
3.6
J. Norris Hot · +0.38 P/GP

4 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 1.00 points/game
0.62 points/game across 113 games vs other opponents

Goals
4
Assists
0
Points
4
Shots / game
1.8

Tampa Bay Lightning

N. Kucherov Hot · +0.63 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 2.20 points/game
1.57 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
6
Assists
5
Points
11
Shots / game
4.6
J. Moser Hot · +0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.80 points/game
0.28 points/game across 143 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.8
C. D'Astous Cold · -0.48 P/GP

3 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 83 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3
B. Point Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 0.60 points/game
0.95 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.0
J. Carlson Hot · +0.28 P/GP

5 games vs Buffalo Sabres · 1.00 points/game
0.72 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
5
Points
5
Shots / game
1.4
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
19Points24
0.559Points %0.706
50Goals for63
57Goals against53
-7Goal differential10
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
8Games8
4Wins8
11Points16
-1Goal differential16
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
5-3-2Record6-2-2
12Points14
31Goals for42
31Goals against34
0Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 4 wins
Total goals41 – 37
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game4.1 / 3.7
Shots per game31.2 / 27.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 6, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 4 25 - 29 View
Mar 8, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
7 - 8 28 - 42 View
Feb 28, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
6 - 2 35 - 38 View
Feb 3, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 26 - 35 View
Apr 13, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 7 25 - 31 View
Apr 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
2 - 3 24 - 38 View
Mar 6, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 33 - 26 View
Apr 15, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 34 - 33 View
Feb 29, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 23 - 23 View
Jan 20, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 1 16 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BUF TBL