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Washington Capitals vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 3, 2026

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 3, 2026.

December 3, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

35.6%
at
Home

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-2

64.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Edmonton Oilers at 64.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

35.6%
Fair American +181
Fair decimal 2.81
Calculate value
Edmonton Oilers logo
Home team

Edmonton Oilers

64.4%
Fair American -181
Fair decimal 1.55
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 3, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

143:36 together · 10 games

xG share40.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 140
Fenwick for / against
61 / 99
Corsi share
38.3%
Fenwick share
38.1%
xG for / against
3.69 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3

Tristan Jarry

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 26

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
86.3
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
27.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.02
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
0.09

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.9
Corsi share (%)
47.6
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 15.4% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
12Points18
0.600Points %0.750
34Goals for52
32Goals against43
2Goal differential9
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM home
3Games7
1Wins3
2Points8
-1Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
34Goals for38
32Goals against30
2Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Edmonton Oilers EDM 5 wins
Total goals38 – 42
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game3.8 / 4.2
Shots per game28.8 / 32.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 24, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 6 27 - 40 View
Nov 19, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 7 30 - 22 View
Feb 23, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 7 25 - 35 View
Jan 21, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 2 14 - 32 View
Mar 13, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 7 25 - 37 View
Nov 24, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 0 35 - 25 View
Dec 5, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 2 50 - 30 View
Nov 7, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 5 29 - 31 View
Mar 9, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 4 32 - 40 View
Feb 2, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 3 27 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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