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Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 14, 2027

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 14, 2027.

January 14, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

9-4-1

40.2%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

59.8% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 59.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

40.2%
Fair American +149
Fair decimal 2.49
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

59.8%
Fair American -149
Fair decimal 1.67
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 14, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 14. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

110:03 together · 10 games

xG share62.1%
Corsi for / against
111 / 86
Fenwick for / against
82 / 60
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
57.7%
xG for / against
5.56 / 3.40
Defense pair

156:41 together · 10 games

xG share64.2%
Corsi for / against
177 / 133
Fenwick for / against
136 / 94
Corsi share
57.1%
Fenwick share
59.1%
xG for / against
9.01 / 5.04
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
133
Save %
89.5
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
38.3

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 14, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.23
xG against / game
2.77
xG differential / game
0.46

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 14, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.0
Corsi share (%)
50.6
Fenwick share (%)
52.5
Faceoff win %
49.3
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 29.4 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
19Points15
0.679Points %0.682
51Goals for38
39Goals against34
12Goal differential4
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
6Games5
3Wins5
7Points10
1Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
6-3-1Record7-2-1
13Points15
34Goals for37
29Goals against29
5Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
Total goals32 – 39
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game3.2 / 3.9
Shots per game27.5 / 28.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 20, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
6 - 2 21 - 34 View
Nov 6, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
6 - 3 27 - 32 View
Oct 26, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 2 19 - 28 View
Mar 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 4 37 - 30 View
Oct 17, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 25 - 25 View
Mar 19, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 3 21 - 27 View
Dec 21, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 5 34 - 36 View
Mar 9, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 21 - 37 View
Feb 18, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 5 24 - 26 View
Jan 29, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 27 - 29 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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