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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 24, 2026

NHL matchup

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 24, 2026.

October 24, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2

7 Model pick
Final
Home

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-1

2
Model V2 pick: Toronto Maple Leafs at 50.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Toronto Maple Leafs logo
Away team

Toronto Maple Leafs

50.0%
Fair American -100
Fair decimal 2.0
Best market +155 · BetRivers
Market implied 39.2%
Edge +10.8%
Expected value +27.5%
Calculate value
Edmonton Oilers logo
Home team

Edmonton Oilers

50.0%
Fair American -100
Fair decimal 2.0
Best market -175 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 63.6%
Edge -13.6%
Expected value -21.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 24, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

89:35 together · 10 games

xG share43.3%
Corsi for / against
70 / 95
Fenwick for / against
58 / 70
Corsi share
42.4%
Fenwick share
45.3%
xG for / against
2.92 / 3.82
All observed combinations

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

141:39 together · 10 games

xG share57.1%
Corsi for / against
146 / 94
Fenwick for / against
108 / 77
Corsi share
60.8%
Fenwick share
58.4%
xG for / against
7.43 / 5.59
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky 51.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Sergei Bobrovsky?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.506
Prev save pct
-0.483
Goalie team start share
+0.415
Won previous appearance
+0.313
Started last game
-0.250
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 24, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Edmonton Oilers

Devon Levi 59.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Devon Levi?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.524
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.459
Team win pct before
-0.443
Prev save pct
-0.364
Goalie win pct before
+0.319
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 24, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Bobrovsky

Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 22

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
143
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
30.8

Devon Levi

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 22

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
152
Save %
90.8
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
38.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

xG for / game
3.25
xG against / game
3.58
xG differential / game
-0.33

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.15
xG against / game
2.85
xG differential / game
0.30

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Toronto Maple Leafs

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.9
Corsi share (%)
46.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.8
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
4.1

Shots / game: 28.7 · Shooting: 13.6% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.2
Corsi share (%)
48.7
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 18.5% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
16Points17
0.615Points %0.773
50Goals for49
41Goals against39
9Goal differential10
W4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR road
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM home
5Games6
3Wins3
7Points7
10Goal differential-4
Last 10 games
Toronto Maple Leafs TOR
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
6-2-2Record8-2-0
14Points16
44Goals for44
34Goals against33
10Goal differential11
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Toronto Maple Leafs TOR 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Edmonton Oilers EDM 3 wins
Total goals42 – 33
Goal differential +9 / -9
Goals per game4.2 / 3.3
Shots per game28.5 / 34.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Feb 3, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 2 27 - 36 View
Dec 13, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
6 - 3 37 - 28 View
Feb 1, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
4 - 3 28 - 48 View
Nov 16, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 4 30 - 22 View
Mar 23, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
3 - 6 39 - 29 View
Jan 16, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 4 27 - 32 View
Mar 11, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
4 - 7 26 - 38 View
Mar 1, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 5 28 - 32 View
Jan 5, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs
2 - 4 30 - 33 View
Dec 14, 2021
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 1 25 - 36 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TOR EDM