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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 20, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 20, 2026.

October 20, 2026 · 9:30 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

6
Final
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 66.4% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

33.6%
Fair American +198
Fair decimal 2.98
Best market -103 · BetRivers
Market implied 50.7%
Edge -17.1%
Expected value -33.8%
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

66.4%
Fair American -198
Fair decimal 1.51
Best market -106 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 51.5%
Edge +14.9%
Expected value +29.0%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 20, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

98:19 together · 8 games

xG share63.2%
Corsi for / against
125 / 79
Fenwick for / against
91 / 56
Corsi share
61.3%
Fenwick share
61.9%
xG for / against
5.99 / 3.49
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

103:26 together · 10 games

xG share65.4%
Corsi for / against
113 / 87
Fenwick for / against
84 / 61
Corsi share
56.5%
Fenwick share
57.9%
xG for / against
6.02 / 3.18
Defense pair

146:54 together · 10 games

xG share61.8%
Corsi for / against
165 / 124
Fenwick for / against
118 / 90
Corsi share
57.1%
Fenwick share
56.7%
xG for / against
8.45 / 5.21
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy 88.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Andrei Vasilevskiy?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.336
Days since last start
+0.462
Started last game
+0.384
Goalie win pct before
+0.320
Consecutive starts
+0.317
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Vegas Golden Knights

Carter Hart 86.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why Carter Hart?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
+0.565
Goalie team start share
+0.329
Days since last start
+0.314
Won previous appearance
+0.238
Team win pct before
-0.230
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 17

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
50
Save %
92.0
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
40.0

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 17

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
96
Save %
90.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
34.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.40
xG against / game
2.50
xG differential / game
0.90

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.51
xG against / game
2.61
xG differential / game
0.91

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
63.4
Corsi share (%)
55.9
Fenwick share (%)
57.0
Faceoff win %
47.4
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 30.9 · Shooting: 10.1% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.5
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
52.1
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 29.9 · Shooting: 13.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
15Points17
0.682Points %0.654
38Goals for47
34Goals against38
4Goal differential9
OT1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
6Games7
2Wins5
5Points10
-5Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
7-2-1Record6-3-1
15Points13
37Goals for36
29Goals against30
8Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 4 wins
Total goals37 – 33
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game3.7 / 3.3
Shots per game28.3 / 28.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 6, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
6 - 3 27 - 32 View
Oct 26, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 2 19 - 28 View
Mar 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 4 37 - 30 View
Oct 17, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 25 - 25 View
Mar 19, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 3 21 - 27 View
Dec 21, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 5 34 - 36 View
Mar 9, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 3 21 - 37 View
Feb 18, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 5 24 - 26 View
Jan 29, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 2 27 - 29 View
Dec 21, 2021
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 3 19 - 41 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL VGK