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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Utah Mammoth prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 24, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 24, 2026.

October 24, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

4
Final
Home

Utah Mammoth

8-5-0

5 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Utah Mammoth at 63.3% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

36.7%
Fair American +172
Fair decimal 2.72
Best market +125 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 44.4%
Edge -7.7%
Expected value -17.4%
Calculate value
Utah Mammoth logo
Home team

Utah Mammoth

63.3%
Fair American -172
Fair decimal 1.58
Best market -140 · BetUS
Market implied 58.3%
Edge +5.0%
Expected value +8.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 24, 2026.

Utah Mammoth

All Model Picks

Bets
10
Record
6-4
Net units
0.56
ROI
5.6%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
1.75
ROI
29.1%

Market Favourite

Bets
8
Record
5-3
Net units
0.50
ROI
6.2%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

119:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.4%
Corsi for / against
156 / 103
Fenwick for / against
116 / 79
Corsi share
60.2%
Fenwick share
59.5%
xG for / against
7.48 / 4.71
All observed combinations

Utah Mammoth

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

59:30 together · 10 games

xG share56.2%
Corsi for / against
49 / 41
Fenwick for / against
37 / 29
Corsi share
54.4%
Fenwick share
56.1%
xG for / against
2.68 / 2.09
Defense pair

117:21 together · 10 games

xG share60.3%
Corsi for / against
147 / 105
Fenwick for / against
99 / 67
Corsi share
58.3%
Fenwick share
59.6%
xG for / against
7.21 / 4.74
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Dennis Hildeby 88.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dennis Hildeby?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.794
Started last game
+0.501
Days since last start
+0.422
Goalie team start share
-0.418
Goalie win pct before
+0.235
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 24, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Utah Mammoth

Karel Vejmelka 66.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Karel Vejmelka?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.818
Prev save pct
-0.603
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.466
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.390
Team win pct before
-0.308
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 24, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 23

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
87.6
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
37.2

Karel Vejmelka

Utah Mammoth · Last start: Oct 22

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
115
Save %
86.1
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
29.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.39
xG against / game
2.64
xG differential / game
0.74

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Utah Mammoth

xG for / game
3.60
xG against / game
2.68
xG differential / game
0.92

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 24, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.8
Corsi share (%)
55.6
Fenwick share (%)
55.9
Faceoff win %
49.7
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 30.2 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Utah Mammoth

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
66.6
Corsi share (%)
56.2
Fenwick share (%)
56.3
Faceoff win %
51.7
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 30.5 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
15Points16
0.682Points %0.615
38Goals for47
34Goals against43
4Goal differential4
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA home
6Games6
2Wins4
5Points8
-5Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Utah Mammoth UTA
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
37Goals for35
29Goals against38
8Goal differential-3
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 2 wins
2 games reviewed
Utah Mammoth UTA 0 wins
Total goals6 – 2
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game3.0 / 1.0
Shots per game27.5 / 27.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 26, 2026
Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 2 28 - 29 View
Nov 2, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth
4 - 2 26 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL UTA