Away team
Tampa Bay Lightning
38.4%
Fair American
+160
Fair decimal
2.6
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New Jersey Devils prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 21, 2027
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 21, 2027.
January 21, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
New Jersey Devils at 61.6%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
New Jersey Devils
61.6%
Fair American
-160
Fair decimal
1.62
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 21, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 7-4
- Net units
- 0.74
- ROI
- 6.7%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.37
- ROI
- 22.9%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.65
- ROI
- 7.2%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
New Jersey Devils
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
84:14 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 105 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 67 / 40
- Corsi share
- 63.6%
- Fenwick share
- 62.6%
- xG for / against
- 5.88 / 2.30
Defense pair
161:33 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 192 / 134
- Fenwick for / against
- 119 / 89
- Corsi share
- 58.9%
- Fenwick share
- 57.2%
- xG for / against
- 7.24 / 5.26
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
New Jersey Devils
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Connor Hellebuyck
New Jersey Devils · Last start: Oct 27
1 / 1 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 18
- Save %
- 94.4
- Goals allowed
- 1
- Close-range shots %
- 55.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
New Jersey Devils
- xG for / game
- 3.43
- xG against / game
- 2.21
- xG differential / game
- 1.22
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 21, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
New Jersey Devils
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 67.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 58.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 58.0
- Faceoff win %
- 51.5
- Penalties / game
- 2.5
Shots / game: 32.1 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 30.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
NJD
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 16 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.667 |
| 38 | Goals for | 41 |
| 34 | Goals against | 33 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 8 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
NJD home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 8 |
| 2 | Wins | 6 |
| 5 | Points | 12 |
| -5 | Goal differential | 11 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
NJD
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 7-3-0 |
| 15 | Points | 14 |
| 37 | Goals for | 38 |
| 29 | Goals against | 25 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 13 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
7 wins
10
games reviewed
NJD
3 wins
Total goals46 – 30
Goal differential
+16
/
-16
Goals per game4.6 / 3.0
Shots per game28.2 / 30.2
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
New Jersey Devils
|
8 - 4 | 35 - 37 | View |
| Nov 18, 2025 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 32 - 29 | View |
| Oct 11, 2025 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 3 | 31 - 17 | View |
| Jan 11, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
New Jersey Devils
|
2 - 3 | 25 - 26 | View |
| Nov 16, 2024 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 4 | 29 - 26 | View |
| Oct 22, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
New Jersey Devils
|
8 - 5 | 37 - 35 | View |
| Feb 25, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
New Jersey Devils
|
4 - 1 | 27 - 19 | View |
| Jan 27, 2024 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 6 | 24 - 42 | View |
| Jan 11, 2024 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 30 - 20 | View |
| Mar 19, 2023 |
New Jersey Devils
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
5 - 2 | 39 - 24 | View |