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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 26, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 26, 2026.

December 26, 2026 · 6:00 PM MBT
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

11-4-2

41.4%
at
Home

Florida Panthers

9-7-2

58.6% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Florida Panthers at 58.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

41.4%
Fair American +142
Fair decimal 2.42
Calculate value
Florida Panthers logo
Home team

Florida Panthers

58.6%
Fair American -142
Fair decimal 1.71
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 26, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

81:42 together · 9 games

xG share62.2%
Corsi for / against
90 / 60
Fenwick for / against
68 / 42
Corsi share
60.0%
Fenwick share
61.8%
xG for / against
4.41 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Florida Panthers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

90:32 together · 10 games

xG share64.4%
Corsi for / against
113 / 70
Fenwick for / against
82 / 54
Corsi share
61.7%
Fenwick share
60.3%
xG for / against
5.55 / 3.06
Defense pair

132:05 together · 10 games

xG share61.1%
Corsi for / against
130 / 114
Fenwick for / against
91 / 79
Corsi share
53.3%
Fenwick share
53.5%
xG for / against
6.10 / 3.88
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 26, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
128
Save %
88.3
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.2

Jacob Markstrom

Florida Panthers · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
119
Save %
86.6
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
35.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
0.50

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Florida Panthers

xG for / game
3.44
xG against / game
2.81
xG differential / game
0.63

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.3
Corsi share (%)
55.4
Fenwick share (%)
54.6
Faceoff win %
51.7
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 14.1% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft

Florida Panthers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.9
Corsi share (%)
54.3
Fenwick share (%)
54.2
Faceoff win %
48.1
Penalties / game
6.4

Shots / game: 30.4 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 30.4 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 26, 2026.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Y. Gourde Hot · +0.60 P/GP

5 games vs Florida Panthers · 1.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 134 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
5
Points
5
Shots / game
0.8
V. Hedman Hot · +0.53 P/GP

5 games vs Florida Panthers · 1.20 points/game
0.67 points/game across 123 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
6
Points
6
Shots / game
2.6
B. Hagel Cold · -0.49 P/GP

5 games vs Florida Panthers · 0.60 points/game
1.09 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
2.8
C. D'Astous Cold · -0.48 P/GP

3 games vs Florida Panthers · 0.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 83 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
B. Point Hot · +0.47 P/GP

5 games vs Florida Panthers · 1.40 points/game
0.93 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
5
Points
7
Shots / game
2.0

Florida Panthers

M. Tkachuk Cold · -0.85 P/GP

3 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.33 points/game
1.18 points/game across 98 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.7
B. Tkachuk Hot · +0.73 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 1.60 points/game
0.87 points/game across 144 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
8
Points
8
Shots / game
4.2
S. Bennett Cold · -0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.20 points/game
0.72 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.0
S. Jones Cold · -0.47 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.20 points/game
0.67 points/game across 127 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.6
B. Marchand Hot · +0.37 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 1.20 points/game
0.83 points/game across 119 games vs other opponents

Goals
5
Assists
1
Points
6
Shots / game
2.2
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Florida Panthers FLA
24Points20
0.706Points %0.556
63Goals for56
53Goals against55
10Goal differential1
L1Current streakL2
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Florida Panthers FLA home
9Games6
3Wins4
8Points8
-6Goal differential6
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Florida Panthers FLA
6-2-2Record5-5-0
14Points10
42Goals for34
34Goals against33
8Goal differential1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Florida Panthers FLA 4 wins
Total goals34 – 28
Goal differential +6 / -6
Goals per game3.4 / 2.8
Shots per game25.7 / 30.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Feb 5, 2026
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 6 34 - 28 View
Dec 27, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
4 - 2 25 - 26 View
Dec 15, 2025
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 2 24 - 28 View
Nov 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
3 - 1 20 - 23 View
Apr 15, 2025
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 24 - 31 View
Mar 3, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
1 - 2 29 - 29 View
Dec 23, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
4 - 0 29 - 36 View
Dec 22, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 2 26 - 21 View
Mar 16, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
5 - 3 16 - 50 View
Feb 17, 2024
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
9 - 2 30 - 30 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL FLA