Forward trio
64:22 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 50 / 50
- Fenwick for / against
- 35 / 41
- Corsi share
- 50.0%
- Fenwick share
- 46.1%
- xG for / against
- 1.81 / 2.58
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 21, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 21, 2026.
March 21, 2026
· 9:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
98:23 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 114 / 67
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 59
- Corsi share
- 63.0%
- Fenwick share
- 58.5%
- xG for / against
- 5.12 / 4.02
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
53:45 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 48 / 50
- Fenwick for / against
- 37 / 40
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 48.1%
- xG for / against
- 2.95 / 3.08
Defense pair
136:32 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 136 / 90
- Fenwick for / against
- 103 / 72
- Corsi share
- 60.2%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 8.74 / 3.86
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 19
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 129
- Save %
- 90.7
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Connor Ingram
Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Mar 19
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 123
- Save %
- 89.4
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 30.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 2.93
- xG against / game
- 3.12
- xG differential / game
- -0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Edmonton Oilers
- xG for / game
- 3.48
- xG against / game
- 3.12
- xG differential / game
- 0.35
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 21, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.4
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 5.6
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 13.1% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.2
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.9
- Faceoff win %
- 54.1
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
EDM
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 17 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.773 |
| 38 | Goals for | 49 |
| 34 | Goals against | 39 |
| 4 | Goal differential | 10 |
| OT1 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
EDM home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 6 |
| 2 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Points | 7 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -4 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
EDM
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 8-2-0 |
| 15 | Points | 16 |
| 37 | Goals for | 44 |
| 29 | Goals against | 33 |
| 8 | Goal differential | 11 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
EDM
4 wins
Total goals34 – 28
Goal differential
+6
/
-6
Goals per game3.4 / 2.8
Shots per game30.1 / 34.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 2 | 25 - 35 | View |
| Feb 25, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 36 | View |
| Dec 10, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
1 - 2 | 22 - 25 | View |
| Dec 14, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
7 - 4 | 24 - 57 | View |
| Nov 18, 2023 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 6 | 42 - 24 | View |
| Jan 19, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
3 - 5 | 31 - 34 | View |
| Nov 8, 2022 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 29 - 37 | View |
| Mar 12, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
1 - 4 | 32 - 49 | View |
| Feb 23, 2022 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 5 | 30 - 23 | View |
| Feb 13, 2020 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 3 | 30 - 37 | View |