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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 12, 2026.

November 12, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

48.7%
at
Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

5-5-0

51.3% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Columbus Blue Jackets at 51.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

48.7%
Fair American +105
Fair decimal 2.05
Calculate value
Columbus Blue Jackets logo
Home team

Columbus Blue Jackets

51.3%
Fair American -105
Fair decimal 1.95
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 12, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Columbus Blue Jackets

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

87:23 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 70
Fenwick for / against
48 / 51
Corsi share
52.7%
Fenwick share
48.5%
xG for / against
2.54 / 2.69
Defense pair

124:28 together · 8 games

xG share44.3%
Corsi for / against
113 / 121
Fenwick for / against
83 / 93
Corsi share
48.3%
Fenwick share
47.2%
xG for / against
5.73 / 7.20
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Cam Talbot

Columbus Blue Jackets · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
119
Save %
89.1
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
40.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Columbus Blue Jackets

xG for / game
2.79
xG against / game
3.46
xG differential / game
-0.67

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Columbus Blue Jackets

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
53.2
Corsi share (%)
47.3
Fenwick share (%)
47.5
Faceoff win %
54.8
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 25.6 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ
15Points10
0.682Points %0.500
38Goals for26
34Goals against33
4Goal differential-7
OT1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ home
6Games7
2Wins4
5Points8
-5Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ
7-2-1Record5-5-0
15Points10
37Goals for26
29Goals against33
8Goal differential-7
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Columbus Blue Jackets CBJ 5 wins
Total goals43 – 39
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game4.3 / 3.9
Shots per game32.0 / 32.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 10, 2026
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 2 31 - 18 View
Jan 24, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
5 - 8 30 - 31 View
Oct 18, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 3 24 - 31 View
Mar 4, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 6 33 - 40 View
Dec 17, 2024
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 5 32 - 33 View
Nov 21, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
6 - 7 30 - 43 View
Apr 9, 2024
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 5 32 - 33 View
Feb 10, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
4 - 2 37 - 35 View
Nov 2, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets
2 - 4 29 - 28 View
Jan 10, 2023
Columbus Blue Jackets Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 6 24 - 46 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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