Skip to content

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 9, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 9, 2027.

January 9, 2027 · 2:30 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

51.6% Model pick
at
Home

Calgary Flames

5-7-0

48.4%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 51.6%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

51.6%
Fair American -107
Fair decimal 1.94
Calculate value
Calgary Flames logo
Home team

Calgary Flames

48.4%
Fair American +107
Fair decimal 2.07
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 9, 2027.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
3
Record
1-2
Net units
-0.25
ROI
-8.3%

Value Picks

Bets
12
Record
5-7
Net units
0.73
ROI
6.1%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Calgary Flames

This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Devin Cooley

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 28

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
95.1
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
28.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.71
xG against / game
3.21
xG differential / game
-0.50

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 9, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Calgary Flames

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.7
Corsi share (%)
49.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.0
Faceoff win %
48.6
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 8.8% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
15Points10
0.682Points %0.417
38Goals for28
34Goals against45
4Goal differential-17
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY home
6Games7
2Wins4
5Points8
-5Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Calgary Flames CGY
7-2-1Record5-5-0
15Points10
37Goals for26
29Goals against35
8Goal differential-9
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Calgary Flames CGY 5 wins
Total goals36 – 30
Goal differential +6 / -6
Goals per game3.6 / 3.0
Shots per game27.3 / 30.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 22, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 4 35 - 29 View
Nov 26, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 32 - 23 View
Feb 27, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 28 - 22 View
Dec 12, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
8 - 3 26 - 22 View
Mar 7, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
6 - 3 24 - 22 View
Dec 16, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
2 - 4 33 - 26 View
Jan 21, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 6 24 - 41 View
Nov 17, 2022
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 40 - 24 View
Mar 10, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
1 - 4 31 - 32 View
Jan 6, 2022
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 27 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL CGY