Forward trio
64:34 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 48 / 50
- Fenwick for / against
- 31 / 39
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 44.3%
- xG for / against
- 1.63 / 2.23
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 22, 2026
NHL matchup
Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 22, 2026.
March 22, 2026
· 7:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
106:53 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 130 / 74
- Fenwick for / against
- 96 / 66
- Corsi share
- 63.7%
- Fenwick share
- 59.3%
- xG for / against
- 6.16 / 4.39
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
55:47 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 58 / 43
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 33
- Corsi share
- 57.4%
- Fenwick share
- 57.1%
- xG for / against
- 1.90 / 2.29
Defense pair
63:51 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 48 / 50
- Fenwick for / against
- 31 / 36
- Corsi share
- 49.0%
- Fenwick share
- 46.3%
- xG for / against
- 1.57 / 2.65
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Mar 21
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 126
- Save %
- 92.1
- Goals allowed
- 10
- Close-range shots %
- 28.6
Dustin Wolf
Calgary Flames · Last start: Mar 20
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 127
- Save %
- 89.8
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 26.0
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 2.92
- xG against / game
- 2.91
- xG differential / game
- 0.01
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.62
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- -0.75
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.8
- Faceoff win %
- 49.6
- Penalties / game
- 5.2
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 14.7% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 46.2
- Faceoff win %
- 47.3
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 26.8 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 34.6 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
TBL
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Points | 10 |
| 0.682 | Points % | 0.455 |
| 38 | Goals for | 28 |
| 34 | Goals against | 41 |
| 4 | Goal differential | -13 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
TBL road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 8 |
| -5 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
TBL
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 15 | Points | 10 |
| 37 | Goals for | 27 |
| 29 | Goals against | 35 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
TBL
6 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
4 wins
Total goals37 – 29
Goal differential
+8
/
-8
Goals per game3.7 / 2.9
Shots per game27.1 / 29.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 32 - 23 | View |
| Feb 27, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 3 | 28 - 22 | View |
| Dec 12, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
8 - 3 | 26 - 22 | View |
| Mar 7, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
6 - 3 | 24 - 22 | View |
| Dec 16, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 4 | 33 - 26 | View |
| Jan 21, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 6 | 24 - 41 | View |
| Nov 17, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 40 - 24 | View |
| Mar 10, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 4 | 31 - 32 | View |
| Jan 6, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 27 - 33 | View |
| Feb 29, 2020 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 4 | 21 - 33 | View |