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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Anaheim Ducks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for March 5, 2027

NHL matchup

Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for March 5, 2027.

March 5, 2027 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

57.0% Model pick
at
Home

Anaheim Ducks

5-6-1

43.0%
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 57.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Away team

Tampa Bay Lightning

57.0%
Fair American -133
Fair decimal 1.75
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Mar 5, 2027.

Anaheim Ducks

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
4-3
Net units
1.13
ROI
16.1%

Value Picks

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
3.94
ROI
78.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
1-2
Net units
-1.15
ROI
-38.4%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Anaheim Ducks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

34:28 together · 5 games

xG share60.5%
Corsi for / against
35 / 32
Fenwick for / against
23 / 20
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
53.5%
xG for / against
2.09 / 1.36
Defense pair

97:22 together · 10 games

xG share38.7%
Corsi for / against
87 / 99
Fenwick for / against
61 / 69
Corsi share
46.8%
Fenwick share
46.9%
xG for / against
3.88 / 6.14
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9

Lukas Dostal

Anaheim Ducks · Last start: Oct 27

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
147
Save %
86.4
Goals allowed
20
Close-range shots %
36.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Anaheim Ducks

xG for / game
2.93
xG against / game
3.68
xG differential / game
-0.75

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Mar 5, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Anaheim Ducks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
49.0
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
46.5
Penalties / game
5.1

Shots / game: 24.2 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
15Points11
0.682Points %0.458
38Goals for37
34Goals against43
4Goal differential-6
OT1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL road
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA home
6Games5
2Wins1
5Points3
-5Goal differential-7
Last 10 games
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
7-2-1Record3-6-1
15Points7
37Goals for30
29Goals against38
8Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 8 wins
10 games reviewed
Anaheim Ducks ANA 2 wins
Total goals36 – 27
Goal differential +9 / -9
Goals per game3.6 / 2.7
Shots per game34.0 / 29.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 31, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
4 - 3 29 - 28 View
Oct 25, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 40 - 33 View
Jan 16, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 37 - 35 View
Jan 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
1 - 4 37 - 26 View
Mar 24, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 2 27 - 32 View
Jan 13, 2024
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 20 - 41 View
Feb 21, 2023
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 6 25 - 44 View
Oct 26, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
4 - 2 30 - 21 View
Apr 14, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 26 - 31 View
Jan 21, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
1 - 5 33 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings TBL ANA