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San Jose Sharks vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 20, 2026

NHL matchup

San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 20, 2026.

October 20, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

San Jose Sharks

6-5-1

4
Final
Home

Montréal Canadiens

6-3-2

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 59.5% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

San Jose Sharks logo
Away team

San Jose Sharks

40.5%
Fair American +147
Fair decimal 2.47
Best market +188 · BetRivers
Market implied 34.7%
Edge +5.8%
Expected value +16.6%
Calculate value
Montréal Canadiens logo
Home team

Montréal Canadiens

59.5%
Fair American -147
Fair decimal 1.68
Best market -200 · BetUS
Market implied 66.7%
Edge -7.2%
Expected value -10.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 20, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

San Jose Sharks

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

113:18 together · 8 games

xG share37.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 111
Fenwick for / against
64 / 78
Corsi share
43.9%
Fenwick share
45.1%
xG for / against
3.48 / 5.93
All observed combinations

Montréal Canadiens

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

77:58 together · 8 games

xG share59.2%
Corsi for / against
112 / 60
Fenwick for / against
88 / 44
Corsi share
65.1%
Fenwick share
66.7%
xG for / against
5.52 / 3.80
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

San Jose Sharks

Alex Nedeljkovic 86.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why Alex Nedeljkovic?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.525
Started last game
+0.543
Goalie win pct before
+0.350
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
+0.236
Days since last start
+0.224
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Montréal Canadiens

Jacob Fowler 82.6%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jacob Fowler?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.621
Started last game
-0.298
Won previous appearance
+0.289
Days since last start
+0.206
Goalie win pct before
+0.188
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 20, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Yaroslav Askarov

San Jose Sharks · Last start: Oct 19

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
137
Save %
86.1
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
33.6

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 17

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
90
Save %
90.0
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
31.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

xG for / game
3.04
xG against / game
3.82
xG differential / game
-0.78

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.41
xG against / game
3.08
xG differential / game
0.33

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 20, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

San Jose Sharks

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
57.2
Corsi share (%)
47.7
Fenwick share (%)
47.0
Faceoff win %
47.3
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 8.7% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft

Montréal Canadiens

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
61.8
Corsi share (%)
54.3
Fenwick share (%)
54.1
Faceoff win %
53.1
Penalties / game
5.38

Shots / game: 29.1 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
13Points14
0.542Points %0.636
37Goals for36
43Goals against36
-6Goal differential0
L1Current streakW2
Road versus home
San Jose Sharks SJS road
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL home
8Games6
4Wins3
9Points7
-3Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
San Jose Sharks SJS
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
4-5-1Record5-3-2
9Points12
28Goals for33
36Goals against34
-8Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

San Jose Sharks SJS 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Montréal Canadiens MTL 5 wins
Total goals32 – 27
Goal differential +5 / -5
Goals per game3.2 / 2.7
Shots per game30.6 / 28.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 14, 2026
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 2 21 - 27 View
Mar 3, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
5 - 7 37 - 28 View
Feb 27, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 4 26 - 33 View
Feb 4, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 3 20 - 30 View
Jan 11, 2024
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 2 35 - 35 View
Nov 24, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 2 24 - 33 View
Feb 28, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 1 32 - 39 View
Nov 29, 2022
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 0 24 - 28 View
Oct 28, 2021
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 0 32 - 45 View
Oct 19, 2021
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 0 25 - 21 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings SJS MTL