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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for April 4, 2027

NHL matchup

Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for April 4, 2027.

April 4, 2027 · 6:00 PM MBT
Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5-7-2

49.6%
at
Home

Washington Capitals

8-5-0

50.4% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Washington Capitals at 50.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Pittsburgh Penguins logo
Away team

Pittsburgh Penguins

49.6%
Fair American +102
Fair decimal 2.02
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

50.4%
Fair American -102
Fair decimal 1.98
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Apr 4, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

58:08 together · 6 games

xG share44.9%
Corsi for / against
53 / 55
Fenwick for / against
38 / 47
Corsi share
49.1%
Fenwick share
44.7%
xG for / against
3.47 / 4.25
Defense pair

81:49 together · 7 games

xG share51.5%
Corsi for / against
72 / 66
Fenwick for / against
49 / 44
Corsi share
52.2%
Fenwick share
52.7%
xG for / against
4.39 / 4.14
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

72:01 together · 9 games

xG share61.8%
Corsi for / against
82 / 69
Fenwick for / against
59 / 47
Corsi share
54.3%
Fenwick share
55.7%
xG for / against
4.57 / 2.83
Defense pair

78:32 together · 10 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
64 / 96
Fenwick for / against
51 / 73
Corsi share
40.0%
Fenwick share
41.1%
xG for / against
3.24 / 4.39
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Apr 4, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Pittsburgh Penguins

A. Silovs
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.889
GAA
2.98
S. Murashov
GP
5
Starts
5
Wins
0
Save %
0.868
GAA
3.83
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Sergei Murashov

Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 31

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
147
Save %
87.1
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
31.3

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Nov 1

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
89.4
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
27.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

xG for / game
3.16
xG against / game
3.45
xG differential / game
-0.29

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.48

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Apr 4, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Pittsburgh Penguins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
58.8
Corsi share (%)
51.8
Fenwick share (%)
50.7
Faceoff win %
45.5
Penalties / game
3.0

Shots / game: 26.6 · Shooting: 10.5% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
48.3
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
48.9
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 28.6 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Apr 4, 2027.

Pittsburgh Penguins

E. Chinakhov Cold · -0.58 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.00 points/game
0.58 points/game across 105 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.4
B. Rust Hot · +0.52 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 1.40 points/game
0.88 points/game across 144 games vs other opponents

Goals
5
Assists
2
Points
7
Shots / game
2.8
E. Malkin Cold · -0.51 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.40 points/game
0.91 points/game across 130 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.8
K. Korczak Hot · +0.43 P/GP

3 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.67 points/game
0.23 points/game across 129 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
0.3
R. Rakell Cold · -0.43 P/GP

5 games vs Washington Capitals · 0.40 points/game
0.83 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
2.6

Washington Capitals

P. Dubois Hot · +0.87 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.60 points/game
0.73 points/game across 112 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
7
Points
8
Shots / game
1.0
J. Chychrun Cold · -0.71 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.00 points/game
0.71 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.8
T. Wilson Hot · +0.63 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.40 points/game
0.77 points/game across 158 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
4
Points
7
Shots / game
2.6
I. Protas Hot · +0.57 P/GP

3 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 14 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
2.3
M. Fehérváry Hot · +0.50 P/GP

5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.80 points/game
0.30 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
0.4
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
12Points16
0.429Points %0.615
47Goals for44
49Goals against42
-2Goal differential2
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
8Games9
1Wins6
3Points12
-7Goal differential2
Last 10 games
Pittsburgh Penguins PIT
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
3-5-2Record6-4-0
8Points12
29Goals for33
36Goals against34
-7Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Pittsburgh Penguins PIT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 6 wins
Total goals28 – 40
Goal differential -12 / +12
Goals per game2.8 / 4.0
Shots per game28.1 / 29.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 7, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 5 30 - 27 View
Apr 12, 2026
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
0 - 3 24 - 26 View
Apr 11, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 3 31 - 12 View
Nov 6, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
3 - 5 30 - 31 View
Apr 17, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
2 - 5 20 - 38 View
Feb 22, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
8 - 3 30 - 32 View
Jan 18, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 4 19 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 2 32 - 34 View
Apr 4, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 1 24 - 31 View
Mar 7, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
6 - 0 29 - 39 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PIT WSH