Away team
Pittsburgh Penguins
50.1%
Fair American
-100
Fair decimal
2.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose Sharks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 11, 2026
NHL matchup
Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 11, 2026.
November 11, 2026
· 10:00 PM MBT
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 50.1%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
San Jose Sharks
49.9%
Fair American
+100
Fair decimal
2.0
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 11, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 10
- Record
- 5-5
- Net units
- 0.59
- ROI
- 5.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 4-7
- Net units
- -2.15
- ROI
- -19.5%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -2.38
- ROI
- -39.7%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.23
- ROI
- 2.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 14
- Record
- 5-9
- Net units
- -2.12
- ROI
- -15.1%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.45
- ROI
- 15.2%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
66:27 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 75 / 58
- Fenwick for / against
- 54 / 46
- Corsi share
- 56.4%
- Fenwick share
- 54.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.93 / 3.23
Defense pair
101:15 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 95 / 98
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 72
- Corsi share
- 49.2%
- Fenwick share
- 49.7%
- xG for / against
- 4.76 / 5.75
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
43:20 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 43 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 26
- Corsi share
- 53.1%
- Fenwick share
- 55.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.25 / 2.28
Defense pair
123:20 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 99 / 133
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 101
- Corsi share
- 42.7%
- Fenwick share
- 40.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.12 / 6.67
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Arturs Silovs
52.7%
Other eligible goalies
- Sergei Murashov47.3%
Why Arturs Silovs?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.646
Prev save pct
-0.472
Team win pct before
+0.420
Started last game
-0.329
Won previous appearance
-0.216
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Nov 10, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
San Jose Sharks
Yaroslav Askarov
79.2%
Other eligible goalies
- Alex Nedeljkovic20.8%
Why Yaroslav Askarov?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.603
Goalie team start share
+0.598
Prev save pct
+0.319
Team win pct before
+0.319
Won previous appearance
+0.303
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Nov 10, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
Season goaltending
Every recorded goalie
Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 11, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.
Pittsburgh Penguins
A. Silovs
- GP
- 12
- Starts
- 12
- Wins
- 5
- Save %
- 0.873
- GAA
- 3.35
S. Murashov
- GP
- 6
- Starts
- 6
- Wins
- 1
- Save %
- 0.878
- GAA
- 3.52
San Jose Sharks
Y. Askarov
- GP
- 13
- Starts
- 13
- Wins
- 5
- Save %
- 0.889
- GAA
- 3.22
A. Nedeljkovic
- GP
- 7
- Starts
- 7
- Wins
- 3
- Save %
- 0.895
- GAA
- 3.23
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Nov 8
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 132
- Save %
- 85.6
- Goals allowed
- 19
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Yaroslav Askarov
San Jose Sharks · Last start: Nov 9
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 133
- Save %
- 87.2
- Goals allowed
- 17
- Close-range shots %
- 32.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.00
- xG against / game
- 3.19
- xG differential / game
- -0.20
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
San Jose Sharks
- xG for / game
- 2.67
- xG against / game
- 4.00
- xG differential / game
- -1.33
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 58.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 52.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.5
- Faceoff win %
- 46.2
- Penalties / game
- 2.8
Shots / game: 26.0 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 31.6 ft
San Jose Sharks
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 45.4
- Faceoff win %
- 46.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.8
Shots / game: 27.0 · Shooting: 8.5% · Avg distance: 33.8 ft
Skaters versus this opponent
Hot & cold against the other team
Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 11, 2026.
Pittsburgh Penguins
T. van Riemsdyk
Hot · +0.79 P/GP
3 games vs San Jose Sharks · 1.00 points/game
0.21 points/game across 152 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 2
- Points
- 3
- Shots / game
- 2.0
T. Novak
Hot · +0.76 P/GP
4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 1.25 points/game
0.49 points/game across 150 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 3
- Points
- 5
- Shots / game
- 2.0
R. Rakell
Cold · -0.57 P/GP
4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 0.25 points/game
0.82 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 1
- Points
- 1
- Shots / game
- 2.3
S. Crosby
Hot · +0.44 P/GP
4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 1.50 points/game
1.06 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 2
- Points
- 6
- Shots / game
- 3.5
N. Robertson
Cold · -0.38 P/GP
4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 0.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 161 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Points
- 0
- Shots / game
- 2.8
San Jose Sharks
M. Marchment
Hot · +1.38 P/GP
4 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 2.00 points/game
0.62 points/game across 146 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 5
- Points
- 8
- Shots / game
- 2.5
T. Toffoli
Hot · +1.13 P/GP
4 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.75 points/game
0.62 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 3
- Points
- 7
- Shots / game
- 3.8
J. Trouba
Hot · +0.68 P/GP
4 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 1.00 points/game
0.32 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 4
- Points
- 4
- Shots / game
- 1.5
D. Nurse
Cold · -0.34 P/GP
4 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.00 points/game
0.34 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Points
- 0
- Shots / game
- 1.8
A. Gaudette
Hot · +0.28 P/GP
5 games vs Pittsburgh Penguins · 0.60 points/game
0.32 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 3
- Points
- 3
- Shots / game
- 0.8
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations
Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.
Want the full picture?
See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
PIT
|
Metric |
SJS
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 17 |
| 0.389 | Points % | 0.425 |
| 58 | Goals for | 51 |
| 65 | Goals against | 71 |
| -7 | Goal differential | -20 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
PIT road
|
Metric |
SJS home
|
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Games | 9 |
| 2 | Wins | 4 |
| 5 | Points | 8 |
| -7 | Goal differential | -8 |
Last 10 games
|
PIT
|
Metric |
SJS
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-6-1 | Record | 3-7-0 |
| 7 | Points | 6 |
| 31 | Goals for | 24 |
| 38 | Goals against | 36 |
| -7 | Goal differential | -12 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
PIT
7 wins
10
games reviewed
SJS
3 wins
Total goals46 – 29
Goal differential
+17
/
-17
Goals per game4.6 / 2.9
Shots per game33.7 / 31.7
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 5 | 32 - 43 | View |
| Oct 18, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
San Jose Sharks
|
3 - 0 | 27 - 31 | View |
| Jan 27, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
San Jose Sharks
|
1 - 2 | 30 - 28 | View |
| Nov 16, 2024 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 4 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Mar 14, 2024 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 6 | 32 - 31 | View |
| Nov 4, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
San Jose Sharks
|
10 - 2 | 35 - 26 | View |
| Feb 14, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
San Jose Sharks
|
3 - 1 | 28 - 39 | View |
| Jan 28, 2023 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 4 | 32 - 41 | View |
| Jan 15, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
San Jose Sharks
|
2 - 1 | 27 - 41 | View |
| Jan 2, 2022 |
San Jose Sharks
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 8 | 27 - 39 | View |