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Philadelphia Flyers vs Vancouver Canucks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 9, 2026

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 9, 2026.

November 9, 2026 · 9:30 PM MBT
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

3
Final
Home

Vancouver Canucks

3-16-1

1 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vancouver Canucks at 53.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

47.0%
Fair American +113
Fair decimal 2.13
Best market -270 · DraftKings
Market implied 73.0%
Edge -26.0%
Expected value -35.6%
Calculate value
Vancouver Canucks logo
Home team

Vancouver Canucks

53.0%
Fair American -113
Fair decimal 1.89
Best market +220 · BetMGM
Market implied 31.2%
Edge +21.8%
Expected value +69.6%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 9, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:41 together · 9 games

xG share50.2%
Corsi for / against
56 / 68
Fenwick for / against
33 / 42
Corsi share
45.2%
Fenwick share
44.0%
xG for / against
2.41 / 2.39
Defense pair

93:34 together · 10 games

xG share46.0%
Corsi for / against
84 / 87
Fenwick for / against
63 / 62
Corsi share
49.1%
Fenwick share
50.4%
xG for / against
3.96 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

52:15 together · 9 games

xG share46.8%
Corsi for / against
59 / 50
Fenwick for / against
39 / 29
Corsi share
54.1%
Fenwick share
57.4%
xG for / against
2.30 / 2.61
Defense pair

112:12 together · 10 games

xG share31.0%
Corsi for / against
90 / 117
Fenwick for / against
51 / 87
Corsi share
43.5%
Fenwick share
37.0%
xG for / against
2.79 / 6.23
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Philadelphia Flyers

Joseph Woll 89.4%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joseph Woll?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+1.290
Team win pct before
+0.535
Started last game
+0.402
Days since last start
+0.341
Goalie team start share
+0.268
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 9, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Vancouver Canucks

Leevi Meriläinen 81.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Leevi Meriläinen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.549
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.494
Won previous appearance
-0.214
Started last game
-0.213
Goalie team start share
+0.205
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 9, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 9, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
3
Save %
0.880
GAA
3.27
J. Woll
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
1
Save %
0.898
GAA
3.12
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dan Vladar

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
112
Save %
86.6
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
33.0

Leevi Meriläinen

Vancouver Canucks · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
132
Save %
84.8
Goals allowed
20
Close-range shots %
34.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
3.03
xG against / game
3.15
xG differential / game
-0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vancouver Canucks

xG for / game
2.40
xG against / game
3.49
xG differential / game
-1.09

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.4
Corsi share (%)
50.6
Fenwick share (%)
50.1
Faceoff win %
49.6
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 27.4 · Shooting: 11.3% · Avg distance: 29.8 ft

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
49.3
Corsi share (%)
45.9
Fenwick share (%)
43.5
Faceoff win %
46.4
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 21.9 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 30.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 9, 2026.

Philadelphia Flyers

S. Couturier Cold · -0.51 P/GP

4 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.00 points/game
0.51 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
C. York Hot · +0.22 P/GP

4 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.50 points/game
0.28 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
C. Grundstrom Hot · +0.21 P/GP

5 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.40 points/game
0.19 points/game across 103 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
0
Points
2
Shots / game
2.6
T. Sanheim Cold · -0.16 P/GP

4 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.25 points/game
0.41 points/game across 178 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
2.3
T. Konecny Cold · -0.14 P/GP

4 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.75 points/game
0.89 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
2.3

Vancouver Canucks

D. O'Connor Hot · +0.69 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
0.31 points/game across 182 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
1
Points
3
Shots / game
1.3
F. Hronek Cold · -0.60 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.60 points/game across 158 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.8
B. Gallagher Hot · +0.46 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.80 points/game
0.34 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.8
B. Boeser Cold · -0.43 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.25 points/game
0.68 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.5
E. Pettersson Cold · -0.41 P/GP

3 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.33 points/game
0.74 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.7
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
15Points7
0.375Points %0.175
45Goals for56
66Goals against90
-21Goal differential-34
W1Current streakL6
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN home
10Games9
2Wins1
6Points2
-11Goal differential-13
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
4-4-2Record1-9-0
10Points2
31Goals for26
32Goals against45
-1Goal differential-19
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Vancouver Canucks VAN 3 wins
Total goals31 – 25
Goal differential +6 / -6
Goals per game3.1 / 2.5
Shots per game32.7 / 29.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 30, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
6 - 3 33 - 35 View
Dec 22, 2025
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 5 25 - 39 View
Oct 19, 2024
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 0 32 - 26 View
Oct 11, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
3 - 2 31 - 26 View
Dec 28, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 1 25 - 27 View
Oct 17, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
0 - 2 26 - 42 View
Feb 18, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 6 37 - 23 View
Oct 15, 2022
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 3 30 - 31 View
Oct 28, 2021
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 1 28 - 28 View
Oct 15, 2021
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 4 39 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings PHI VAN