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Philadelphia Flyers vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 19, 2026

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 19, 2026.

November 19, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

5-10-5

38.3%
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

11-6-1

61.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 61.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

38.3%
Fair American +161
Fair decimal 2.61
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

61.7%
Fair American -161
Fair decimal 1.62
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 19, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 19. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

76:15 together · 9 games

xG share55.6%
Corsi for / against
55 / 68
Fenwick for / against
33 / 41
Corsi share
44.7%
Fenwick share
44.6%
xG for / against
2.69 / 2.14
Defense pair

106:10 together · 10 games

xG share49.9%
Corsi for / against
95 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 66
Corsi share
50.8%
Fenwick share
51.1%
xG for / against
4.73 / 4.75
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

42:06 together · 6 games

xG share45.3%
Corsi for / against
36 / 42
Fenwick for / against
22 / 37
Corsi share
46.2%
Fenwick share
37.3%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.22
Defense pair

115:11 together · 9 games

xG share49.0%
Corsi for / against
106 / 100
Fenwick for / against
77 / 85
Corsi share
51.5%
Fenwick share
47.5%
xG for / against
5.18 / 5.40
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 19, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Philadelphia Flyers

D. Vladar
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
3
Save %
0.880
GAA
3.27
J. Woll
GP
10
Starts
10
Wins
2
Save %
0.901
GAA
2.91
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
88.4
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.0

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
92.2
Goals allowed
10
Close-range shots %
27.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
3.06
xG against / game
3.11
xG differential / game
-0.04

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.26
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.35

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 19, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.8
Corsi share (%)
50.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.7
Faceoff win %
50.6
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 26.3 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 29.5 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.3
Corsi share (%)
52.0
Fenwick share (%)
51.4
Faceoff win %
55.2
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 12.5% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 19, 2026.

Philadelphia Flyers

O. Tippett Cold · -0.59 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.59 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.4
N. Cates Cold · -0.51 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.51 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
D. Barkey Cold · -0.44 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.44 points/game across 57 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
T. Sanheim Cold · -0.41 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.41 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.6
T. Foerster Cold · -0.32 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.20 points/game
0.52 points/game across 123 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.2

Ottawa Senators

D. Cozens Cold · -0.66 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.66 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.8
W. Foegele Hot · +0.60 P/GP

4 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 1.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 159 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
2.8
D. Batherson Cold · -0.49 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.40 points/game
0.89 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
F. Zetterlund Cold · -0.45 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 175 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.4
J. Sanderson Cold · -0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Philadelphia Flyers · 0.40 points/game
0.78 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.8
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
15Points23
0.375Points %0.639
45Goals for58
66Goals against54
-21Goal differential4
W1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
10Games8
2Wins6
6Points12
-11Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
4-4-2Record5-4-1
10Points11
31Goals for35
32Goals against34
-1Goal differential1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 7 wins
Total goals25 – 30
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game2.5 / 3.0
Shots per game25.6 / 27.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 17, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 3 26 - 28 View
Oct 8, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 29 - 26 View
Feb 5, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 1 27 - 16 View
Nov 8, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 2 14 - 22 View
Oct 23, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 23 - 33 View
Apr 13, 2025
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 4 32 - 25 View
Mar 11, 2025
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 2 24 - 22 View
Nov 14, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 4 19 - 37 View
Mar 2, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 4 26 - 40 View
Jan 21, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
5 - 3 34 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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