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Philadelphia Flyers vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 11, 2026

NHL matchup

Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 11, 2026.

November 11, 2026 · 8:00 PM CST
Away

Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-3

33.7%
at
Home

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-1

66.3% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Edmonton Oilers at 66.3%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Philadelphia Flyers logo
Away team

Philadelphia Flyers

33.7%
Fair American +197
Fair decimal 2.97
Calculate value
Edmonton Oilers logo
Home team

Edmonton Oilers

66.3%
Fair American -197
Fair decimal 1.51
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 11, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

49:44 together · 7 games

xG share61.4%
Corsi for / against
40 / 38
Fenwick for / against
22 / 25
Corsi share
51.3%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
2.09 / 1.31
Defense pair

106:21 together · 7 games

xG share53.1%
Corsi for / against
96 / 92
Fenwick for / against
69 / 59
Corsi share
51.1%
Fenwick share
53.9%
xG for / against
4.34 / 3.84
All observed combinations

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

141:59 together · 10 games

xG share47.1%
Corsi for / against
88 / 130
Fenwick for / against
63 / 90
Corsi share
40.4%
Fenwick share
41.2%
xG for / against
4.22 / 4.74
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Joseph Woll

Philadelphia Flyers · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
134
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
32.1

Tristan Jarry

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 24

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
102
Save %
85.3
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
25.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

xG for / game
2.65
xG against / game
3.44
xG differential / game
-0.79

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.09
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 11, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Philadelphia Flyers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
50.2
Corsi share (%)
45.7
Fenwick share (%)
44.6
Faceoff win %
49.8
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 23.3 · Shooting: 8.6% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.8
Corsi share (%)
47.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.5
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 24.4 · Shooting: 17.6% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
9Points17
0.346Points %0.773
24Goals for49
42Goals against39
-18Goal differential10
L1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Philadelphia Flyers PHI road
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM home
6Games6
1Wins3
3Points7
-8Goal differential-4
Last 10 games
Philadelphia Flyers PHI
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
3-6-1Record8-2-0
7Points16
20Goals for44
29Goals against33
-9Goal differential11
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Philadelphia Flyers PHI 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Edmonton Oilers EDM 5 wins
Total goals30 – 28
Goal differential +2 / -2
Goals per game3.0 / 2.8
Shots per game31.6 / 29.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 3, 2026
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 2 29 - 24 View
Nov 12, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
2 - 1 31 - 21 View
Feb 22, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 6 18 - 32 View
Oct 15, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 4 30 - 31 View
Jan 2, 2024
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 5 37 - 36 View
Oct 19, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 4 23 - 32 View
Feb 21, 2023
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 4 26 - 27 View
Feb 9, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
1 - 2 35 - 36 View
Mar 1, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
3 - 0 32 - 39 View
Oct 27, 2021
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 3 34 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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