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Ottawa Senators vs Vancouver Canucks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 18, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 18, 2027.

February 18, 2027 · 9:00 PM MBT
Away

Ottawa Senators

11-6-2

50.7% Model pick
at
Home

Vancouver Canucks

3-16-1

49.3%
Model V2 pick: Ottawa Senators at 50.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

50.7%
Fair American -103
Fair decimal 1.97
Calculate value
Vancouver Canucks logo
Home team

Vancouver Canucks

49.3%
Fair American +103
Fair decimal 2.03
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 18, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
3-3
Net units
-0.90
ROI
-15.1%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
2-2
Net units
-0.07
ROI
-1.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
12
Record
6-6
Net units
-1.61
ROI
-13.4%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

9 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Partial coverage: 9 / 10 selected games. Results use validated games only. Games awaiting complete shift or play-by-play data are excluded, not counted as zero or replaced by older games.

Forward trio

36:22 together · 6 games

xG share44.6%
Corsi for / against
35 / 40
Fenwick for / against
21 / 35
Corsi share
46.7%
Fenwick share
37.5%
xG for / against
1.81 / 2.25
Defense pair

117:47 together · 9 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
111 / 102
Fenwick for / against
80 / 87
Corsi share
52.1%
Fenwick share
47.9%
xG for / against
5.57 / 5.48
All observed combinations

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

57:15 together · 9 games

xG share49.5%
Corsi for / against
67 / 51
Fenwick for / against
45 / 29
Corsi share
56.8%
Fenwick share
60.8%
xG for / against
2.56 / 2.61
Defense pair

99:51 together · 10 games

xG share36.0%
Corsi for / against
79 / 94
Fenwick for / against
46 / 70
Corsi share
45.7%
Fenwick share
39.7%
xG for / against
2.67 / 4.76
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Feb 18, 2027. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Samuel Ersson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Nov 10

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
120
Save %
92.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
24.2

Leevi Meriläinen

Vancouver Canucks · Last start: Nov 9

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
125
Save %
86.4
Goals allowed
17
Close-range shots %
33.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
3.42
xG against / game
3.00
xG differential / game
0.42

9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vancouver Canucks

xG for / game
2.45
xG against / game
3.36
xG differential / game
-0.91

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.9
Corsi share (%)
53.5
Fenwick share (%)
52.4
Faceoff win %
55.9
Penalties / game
4.8

Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 12.8% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Vancouver Canucks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
49.2
Corsi share (%)
46.8
Fenwick share (%)
45.4
Faceoff win %
47.6
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 22.4 · Shooting: 11.6% · Avg distance: 31.4 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Feb 18, 2027.

Ottawa Senators

S. Pinto Hot · +0.65 P/GP

4 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 1.25 points/game
0.60 points/game across 158 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Shots / game
2.3
J. Sanderson Hot · +0.58 P/GP

3 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 1.33 points/game
0.75 points/game across 156 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
2.7
C. Giroux Hot · +0.41 P/GP

4 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 1.00 points/game
0.59 points/game across 179 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
2.8
A. Burakovsky Hot · +0.39 P/GP

5 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.80 points/game
0.41 points/game across 156 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.4
A. Zub Hot · +0.36 P/GP

3 games vs Vancouver Canucks · 0.67 points/game
0.31 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.3

Vancouver Canucks

M. Rossi Cold · -0.69 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.69 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
J. DeBrusk Hot · +0.45 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 1.00 points/game
0.55 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
1
Points
4
Shots / game
2.5
B. Gallagher Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.35 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
D. O'Connor Cold · -0.32 P/GP

4 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.32 points/game across 182 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
L. Ohgren Cold · -0.29 P/GP

3 games vs Ottawa Senators · 0.00 points/game
0.29 points/game across 109 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.7
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
24Points7
0.632Points %0.175
60Goals for56
57Goals against90
3Goal differential-34
OT1Current streakL6
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN home
10Games9
5Wins1
11Points2
1Goal differential-13
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Vancouver Canucks VAN
5-3-2Record1-9-0
12Points2
36Goals for26
34Goals against45
2Goal differential-19
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Vancouver Canucks VAN 6 wins
Total goals29 – 40
Goal differential -11 / +11
Goals per game2.9 / 4.0
Shots per game29.6 / 25.4
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 9, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 0 24 - 16 View
Jan 13, 2026
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
1 - 2 20 - 40 View
Dec 21, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
5 - 4 22 - 25 View
Nov 23, 2024
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
4 - 3 21 - 29 View
Jan 2, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
3 - 6 38 - 26 View
Nov 9, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 2 16 - 30 View
Mar 11, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
2 - 5 20 - 30 View
Nov 8, 2022
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 4 28 - 41 View
Apr 19, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks
4 - 3 31 - 37 View
Dec 1, 2021
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 2 35 - 21 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT VAN