Skip to content

Ottawa Senators vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 22, 2027

NHL matchup

Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 22, 2027.

February 22, 2027 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Ottawa Senators

8-5-0

40.8%
at
Home

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-2

59.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Edmonton Oilers at 59.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Ottawa Senators logo
Away team

Ottawa Senators

40.8%
Fair American +145
Fair decimal 2.45
Calculate value
Edmonton Oilers logo
Home team

Edmonton Oilers

59.2%
Fair American -145
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 22, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:16 together · 9 games

xG share42.5%
Corsi for / against
34 / 43
Fenwick for / against
21 / 39
Corsi share
44.2%
Fenwick share
35.0%
xG for / against
1.84 / 2.49
Defense pair

81:43 together · 9 games

xG share62.9%
Corsi for / against
98 / 76
Fenwick for / against
67 / 46
Corsi share
56.3%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
4.60 / 2.72
All observed combinations

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

143:36 together · 10 games

xG share40.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 140
Fenwick for / against
61 / 99
Corsi share
38.3%
Fenwick share
38.1%
xG for / against
3.69 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 27

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
56
Save %
89.3
Goals allowed
6
Close-range shots %
33.9

Tristan Jarry

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 26

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
130
Save %
86.2
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
27.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.73
xG differential / game
0.12

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.02
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
0.09

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 22, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.2
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
4.3

Shots / game: 25.3 · Shooting: 10.7% · Avg distance: 31.9 ft

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.9
Corsi share (%)
47.7
Fenwick share (%)
48.0
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 23.9 · Shooting: 15.5% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
16Points18
0.615Points %0.750
39Goals for52
38Goals against43
1Goal differential9
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Ottawa Senators OTT road
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM home
6Games7
3Wins3
6Points8
0Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Ottawa Senators OTT
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
29Goals for38
30Goals against30
-1Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Ottawa Senators OTT 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Edmonton Oilers EDM 7 wins
Total goals30 – 40
Goal differential -10 / +10
Goals per game3.0 / 4.0
Shots per game25.6 / 34.5
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 3, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
4 - 5 21 - 37 View
Oct 21, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 25 - 21 View
Dec 22, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
1 - 3 21 - 21 View
Nov 19, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 2 31 - 29 View
Mar 24, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 36 - 16 View
Jan 6, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
1 - 3 30 - 46 View
Mar 14, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 6 32 - 33 View
Feb 11, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 3 40 - 29 View
Jan 31, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 39 - 31 View
Jan 15, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
6 - 4 26 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings OTT EDM