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New York Islanders vs San Jose Sharks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 9, 2026

NHL matchup

New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 9, 2026.

November 9, 2026 · 10:00 PM MBT
Away

New York Islanders

7-6-4

2
Final
Home

San Jose Sharks

8-11-1

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: San Jose Sharks at 57.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

New York Islanders logo
Away team

New York Islanders

43.0%
Fair American +133
Fair decimal 2.33
Best market -138 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 58.0%
Edge -15.0%
Expected value -25.8%
Calculate value
San Jose Sharks logo
Home team

San Jose Sharks

57.0%
Fair American -133
Fair decimal 1.75
Best market +122 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 45.0%
Edge +12.0%
Expected value +26.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 9, 2026.

San Jose Sharks

All Model Picks

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Net units
-0.99
ROI
-14.1%

Value Picks

Bets
13
Record
4-9
Net units
-3.34
ROI
-25.7%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.45
ROI
15.2%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 9. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

88:40 together · 9 games

xG share53.8%
Corsi for / against
113 / 99
Fenwick for / against
82 / 71
Corsi share
53.3%
Fenwick share
53.6%
xG for / against
7.30 / 6.27
Defense pair

124:57 together · 10 games

xG share56.9%
Corsi for / against
142 / 106
Fenwick for / against
103 / 82
Corsi share
57.3%
Fenwick share
55.7%
xG for / against
7.99 / 6.06
All observed combinations

San Jose Sharks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

33:25 together · 5 games

xG share40.4%
Corsi for / against
34 / 47
Fenwick for / against
29 / 34
Corsi share
42.0%
Fenwick share
46.0%
xG for / against
2.00 / 2.95
Defense pair

124:38 together · 10 games

xG share36.8%
Corsi for / against
102 / 137
Fenwick for / against
70 / 100
Corsi share
42.7%
Fenwick share
41.2%
xG for / against
3.74 / 6.43
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin 72.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ilya Sorokin?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.737
Started last game
-0.315
Team win pct before
+0.202
Won previous appearance
-0.198
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.138
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 9, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

San Jose Sharks

Yaroslav Askarov 83.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Yaroslav Askarov?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.638
Started last game
+0.334
Prev save pct
-0.278
Team win pct before
+0.258
Days since last start
+0.230
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 9, 5:01 AM Winnipeg time

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 9, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Ilya Sorokin

New York Islanders · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
155
Save %
87.7
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
31.0

Alex Nedeljkovic

San Jose Sharks · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
160
Save %
88.1
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
34.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

xG for / game
3.09
xG against / game
3.56
xG differential / game
-0.47

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

San Jose Sharks

xG for / game
2.55
xG against / game
4.03
xG differential / game
-1.48

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 9, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

New York Islanders

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.1
Corsi share (%)
49.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.3
Faceoff win %
58.1
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 24.9 · Shooting: 10.8% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft

San Jose Sharks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.7
Corsi share (%)
45.4
Fenwick share (%)
43.9
Faceoff win %
47.4
Penalties / game
4.7

Shots / game: 26.1 · Shooting: 9.6% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 9, 2026.

New York Islanders

A. Duclair Hot · +0.40 P/GP

4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 0.75 points/game
0.35 points/game across 118 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.3
O. Palat Cold · -0.28 P/GP

5 games vs San Jose Sharks · 0.00 points/game
0.28 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.6
B. Hutton Hot · +0.26 P/GP

4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 0.50 points/game
0.24 points/game across 63 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.0
A. Pelech Hot · +0.25 P/GP

4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 0.50 points/game
0.25 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
2.0
J. Pageau Hot · +0.25 P/GP

4 games vs San Jose Sharks · 0.75 points/game
0.50 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.3

San Jose Sharks

K. Sherwood Hot · +1.02 P/GP

4 games vs New York Islanders · 1.50 points/game
0.48 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
5
Assists
1
Points
6
Shots / game
1.8
T. Toffoli Cold · -0.65 P/GP

3 games vs New York Islanders · 0.00 points/game
0.65 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.3
D. Nurse Cold · -0.34 P/GP

4 games vs New York Islanders · 0.00 points/game
0.34 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.3
A. Wennberg Cold · -0.32 P/GP

4 games vs New York Islanders · 0.25 points/game
0.57 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
0.8
A. Gaudette Hot · +0.28 P/GP

5 games vs New York Islanders · 0.60 points/game
0.32 points/game across 148 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
0
Points
3
Shots / game
2.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
San Jose Sharks SJS
18Points17
0.529Points %0.425
49Goals for51
52Goals against71
-3Goal differential-20
OT2Current streakW1
Road versus home
New York Islanders NYI road
Metric
San Jose Sharks SJS home
8Games9
3Wins4
8Points8
-4Goal differential-8
Last 10 games
New York Islanders NYI
Metric
San Jose Sharks SJS
4-3-3Record3-7-0
11Points6
29Goals for24
35Goals against36
-6Goal differential-12
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

New York Islanders NYI 7 wins
10 games reviewed
San Jose Sharks SJS 3 wins
Total goals38 – 23
Goal differential +15 / -15
Goals per game3.8 / 2.3
Shots per game34.3 / 30.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 7, 2026
New York Islanders New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
2 - 1 34 - 31 View
Oct 21, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
3 - 4 36 - 27 View
Mar 8, 2025
New York Islanders New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 2 28 - 40 View
Jan 18, 2025
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
1 - 4 19 - 31 View
Mar 7, 2024
New York Islanders New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
7 - 2 33 - 25 View
Dec 5, 2023
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
5 - 4 37 - 39 View
Mar 18, 2023
New York Islanders New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
4 - 1 33 - 30 View
Oct 18, 2022
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 5 28 - 46 View
Feb 24, 2022
New York Islanders New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks
3 - 4 47 - 28 View
Dec 2, 2021
San Jose Sharks San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders New York Islanders
2 - 1 35 - 25 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings NYI SJS