Away team
Nashville Predators
34.5%
Fair American
+190
Fair decimal
2.9
Nashville Predators vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 29, 2026
NHL matchup
Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 29, 2026.
December 29, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 65.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
65.5%
Fair American
-190
Fair decimal
1.53
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 29, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 2-4
- Net units
- -1.46
- ROI
- -24.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 3-6
- Net units
- -1.46
- ROI
- -16.2%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 0-2
- Net units
- -2.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Nashville Predators
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsTampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Nashville Predators
Expected starter unavailable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Justus Annunen
Nashville Predators · Last start: Oct 25
2 / 2 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 52
- Save %
- 84.6
- Goals allowed
- 8
- Close-range shots %
- 34.6
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Nashville Predators
- xG for / game
- 3.00
- xG against / game
- 3.36
- xG differential / game
- -0.36
9 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Nashville Predators
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.9
- Faceoff win %
- 50.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.4
Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 11.4% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
NSH
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 0.545 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 31 | Goals for | 38 |
| 35 | Goals against | 34 |
| -4 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W1 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
NSH road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 1 | Wins | 5 |
| 5 | Points | 10 |
| -6 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
NSH
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-4 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 12 | Points | 15 |
| 30 | Goals for | 37 |
| 32 | Goals against | 29 |
| -2 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
NSH
1 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
9 wins
Total goals24 – 37
Goal differential
-13
/
+13
Goals per game2.4 / 3.7
Shots per game29.7 / 32.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 |
Nashville Predators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 3 | 31 - 28 | View |
| Oct 28, 2025 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Nashville Predators
|
5 - 2 | 32 - 20 | View |
| Nov 29, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Nashville Predators
|
3 - 2 | 28 - 31 | View |
| Oct 28, 2024 |
Nashville Predators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 3 | 37 - 27 | View |
| Dec 7, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Nashville Predators
|
1 - 5 | 33 - 30 | View |
| Oct 10, 2023 |
Nashville Predators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 5 | 31 - 34 | View |
| Dec 8, 2022 |
Nashville Predators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 5 | 36 - 33 | View |
| Nov 19, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Nashville Predators
|
3 - 2 | 39 - 32 | View |
| Apr 23, 2022 |
Nashville Predators
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
2 - 6 | 21 - 39 | View |
| Feb 26, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Nashville Predators
|
3 - 2 | 33 - 28 | View |