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Montréal Canadiens vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 28, 2026

NHL matchup

Montréal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 28, 2026.

November 28, 2026 · 4:00 PM MBT
Away

Montréal Canadiens

11-3-3

42.8%
at
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

12-5-2

57.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 57.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Montréal Canadiens logo
Away team

Montréal Canadiens

42.8%
Fair American +134
Fair decimal 2.34
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

57.2%
Fair American -134
Fair decimal 1.75
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 28, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

127:27 together · 10 games

xG share45.3%
Corsi for / against
103 / 135
Fenwick for / against
80 / 100
Corsi share
43.3%
Fenwick share
44.4%
xG for / against
5.61 / 6.79
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

74:24 together · 10 games

xG share43.0%
Corsi for / against
60 / 69
Fenwick for / against
41 / 48
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.1%
xG for / against
2.28 / 3.02
Defense pair

150:18 together · 10 games

xG share60.9%
Corsi for / against
134 / 122
Fenwick for / against
103 / 84
Corsi share
52.3%
Fenwick share
55.1%
xG for / against
7.22 / 4.64
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 28, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Vegas Golden Knights

C. Hart
GP
10
Starts
9
Wins
5
Save %
0.900
GAA
2.49
A. Hill
GP
9
Starts
9
Wins
7
Save %
0.903
GAA
2.54
C. Whitehead
GP
0
Starts
0
Wins
0
Save %
—
GAA
—
Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
184
Save %
93.5
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
34.8

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
142
Save %
90.1
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.38
xG against / game
3.48
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
2.84
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.0
Corsi share (%)
47.8
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 14.0% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
46.5
Fenwick share (%)
49.1
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
3.2

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 34.3 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 28, 2026.

Montréal Canadiens

L. Hutson Cold · -0.91 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.91 points/game across 177 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.5
N. Suzuki Cold · -0.69 P/GP

4 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.50 points/game
1.19 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
0.8
Z. Bolduc Hot · +0.57 P/GP

3 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 1.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
2.0
P. Danault Hot · +0.43 P/GP

5 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.80 points/game
0.37 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
1.8
K. Guhle Cold · -0.34 P/GP

3 games vs Vegas Golden Knights · 0.00 points/game
0.34 points/game across 104 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0

Vegas Golden Knights

M. Stone Cold · -0.78 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.33 points/game
1.11 points/game across 142 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.3
J. Eichel Cold · -0.48 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.75 points/game
1.23 points/game across 166 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
4.5
V. Olofsson Cold · -0.48 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 137 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
R. Andersson Cold · -0.48 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.00 points/game
0.48 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
3.2
B. Howden Cold · -0.45 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.00 points/game
0.45 points/game across 154 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
25Points26
0.735Points %0.684
61Goals for64
53Goals against51
8Goal differential13
W2Current streakW3
Road versus home
Montréal Canadiens MTL road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
8Games9
6Wins6
13Points12
10Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Montréal Canadiens MTL
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
8-0-2Record5-3-2
18Points12
38Goals for28
26Goals against29
12Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Montréal Canadiens MTL 3 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 7 wins
Total goals31 – 39
Goal differential -8 / +8
Goals per game3.1 / 3.9
Shots per game27.5 / 33.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 27, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 3 34 - 26 View
Nov 28, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
4 - 1 19 - 31 View
Dec 31, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 2 22 - 29 View
Nov 23, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
6 - 2 28 - 17 View
Nov 16, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
6 - 5 42 - 28 View
Oct 30, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 3 39 - 25 View
Mar 5, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 28 - 28 View
Nov 5, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
6 - 4 42 - 31 View
Jan 20, 2022
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 27 - 53 View
Nov 6, 2021
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 2 18 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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