Montréal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Odds & Win Probability | November 25, 2026

November 25, 2026 · 9:30 PM MBT

Away

Montréal Canadiens

11-3-3

39.5%

Home

Colorado Avalanche

10-6-2

60.5% Model pick

Model V2 pick: Colorado Avalanche at 60.5%

Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Away team

Montréal Canadiens

39.5%

Fair American +153

Fair decimal 2.53

Calculate value

Home team

Colorado Avalanche

60.5%

Fair American -153

Fair decimal 1.65

Calculate value

Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 25, 2026.

Montréal Canadiens

All Model Picks

Bets: 10
Record: 8-2
Net units: 3.91
ROI: 39.1%

Value Picks

Bets: 4
Record: 3-1
Net units: 2.26
ROI: 56.4%

Market Favourite

Bets: 12
Record: 8-4
Net units: 1.91
ROI: 15.9%

Full team betting results

Colorado Avalanche

All Model Picks

Bets: 17
Record: 10-7
Net units: -1.61
ROI: -9.5%

Value Picks

Bets: 3
Record: 2-1
Net units: 0.68
ROI: 22.8%

Market Favourite

Bets: 17
Record: 10-7
Net units: -1.61
ROI: -9.5%

Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

89:03 together · 10 games

xG share66.4%

Corsi for / against: 89 / 68
Fenwick for / against: 66 / 50
Corsi share: 56.7%
Fenwick share: 56.9%
xG for / against: 4.45 / 2.25

Defense pair

127:27 together · 10 games

xG share45.3%

Corsi for / against: 103 / 135
Fenwick for / against: 80 / 100
Corsi share: 43.3%
Fenwick share: 44.4%
xG for / against: 5.61 / 6.79

All observed combinations

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

99:42 together · 10 games

xG share47.9%

Corsi for / against: 121 / 94
Fenwick for / against: 87 / 72
Corsi share: 56.3%
Fenwick share: 54.7%
xG for / against: 5.80 / 6.32

Defense pair

100:15 together · 10 games

xG share55.4%

Corsi for / against: 122 / 82
Fenwick for / against: 92 / 64
Corsi share: 59.8%
Fenwick share: 59.0%
xG for / against: 6.39 / 5.15

All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Colorado Avalanche

Expected starter unavailable.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 25, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Montréal Canadiens

J. Fowler

GP: 10
Starts: 10
Wins: 8
Save %: 0.926
GAA: 2.15

J. Dobes

GP: 7
Starts: 7
Wins: 3
Save %: 0.847
GAA: 4.04

S. Montembeault

GP: 0
Starts: 0
Wins: 0
Save %: —
GAA: —

Colorado Avalanche

M. Blackwood

GP: 14
Starts: 13
Wins: 9
Save %: 0.901
GAA: 2.60

S. Wedgewood

GP: 5
Starts: 5
Wins: 1
Save %: 0.867
GAA: 4.02

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 184
Save %: 93.5
Goals allowed: 12
Close-range shots %: 34.8

Mackenzie Blackwood

Colorado Avalanche · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced: 117
Save %: 91.5
Goals allowed: 10
Close-range shots %: 35.0

Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game: 3.38
xG against / game: 3.48
xG differential / game: -0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Colorado Avalanche

xG for / game: 3.06
xG against / game: 3.09
xG differential / game: -0.03

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 25, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 56.0
Corsi share (%): 47.8
Fenwick share (%): 49.0
Faceoff win %: 52.4
Penalties / game: 5.0

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 14.0% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft

Colorado Avalanche

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game: 63.6
Corsi share (%): 53.5
Fenwick share (%): 52.7
Faceoff win %: 48.4
Penalties / game: 4.1

Shots / game: 30.4 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 33.2 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 25, 2026.

Montréal Canadiens

C. Kreider Cold · -0.57 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.57 points/game across 155 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 1.4

Z. Bolduc Hot · +0.57 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.00 points/game
0.43 points/game across 161 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Points: 5
Shots / game: 3.2

J. Slafkovský Hot · +0.50 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 1.25 points/game
0.75 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 3
Assists: 2
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.0

C. Caufield Cold · -0.48 P/GP

4 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.50 points/game
0.98 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 1
Points: 2
Shots / game: 2.5

P. Danault Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Colorado Avalanche · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 167 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 0
Points: 0
Shots / game: 0.6

Colorado Avalanche

B. Nelson Hot · +0.69 P/GP

5 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.40 points/game
0.71 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals: 4
Assists: 3
Points: 7
Shots / game: 2.8

J. Schwartz Hot · +0.68 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.25 points/game
0.57 points/game across 145 games vs other opponents

Goals: 2
Assists: 3
Points: 5
Shots / game: 2.3

C. Makar Cold · -0.63 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.50 points/game
1.13 points/game across 168 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 2
Points: 2
Shots / game: 3.3

N. MacKinnon Cold · -0.55 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.00 points/game
1.55 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals: 1
Assists: 3
Points: 4
Shots / game: 3.8

N. Kadri Cold · -0.50 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.25 points/game
0.75 points/game across 173 games vs other opponents

Goals: 0
Assists: 1
Points: 1
Shots / game: 2.0

How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview

MTL	Metric	COL
25	Points	22
0.735	Points %	0.611
61	Goals for	72
53	Goals against	56
8	Goal differential	16
W2	Current streak	W1

Road versus home

MTL road	Metric	COL home
8	Games	10
6	Wins	7
13	Points	16
10	Goal differential	20

Last 10 games

MTL	Metric	COL
8-0-2	Record	5-4-1
18	Points	11
38	Goals for	36
26	Goals against	32
12	Goal differential	4

History

Last 10 head-to-head games

MTL 4 wins

10 games reviewed

COL 6 wins

Total goals29 – 37

Goal differential -8 / +8

Goals per game2.9 / 3.7

Shots per game25.3 / 33.7

Date	Matchup	Score	Shots	Details
Jan 29, 2026	Colorado Avalanche at Montréal Canadiens	3 - 7	29 - 28	View
Nov 29, 2025	Montréal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche	2 - 7	23 - 36	View
Mar 22, 2025	Colorado Avalanche at Montréal Canadiens	5 - 4	37 - 29	View
Jan 4, 2025	Montréal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche	2 - 1	23 - 23	View
Mar 26, 2024	Montréal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche	2 - 1	27 - 28	View
Jan 15, 2024	Colorado Avalanche at Montréal Canadiens	3 - 4	35 - 34	View
Mar 13, 2023	Colorado Avalanche at Montréal Canadiens	8 - 4	33 - 19	View
Dec 21, 2022	Montréal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche	1 - 2	20 - 36	View
Jan 22, 2022	Montréal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche	2 - 3	30 - 46	View
Dec 2, 2021	Colorado Avalanche at Montréal Canadiens	4 - 1	34 - 20	View

This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.

Montréal Canadiens vs Colorado Avalanche prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 25, 2026

Montréal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche

Montréal Canadiens

Colorado Avalanche

Model V2 versus market

Montréal Canadiens

Colorado Avalanche

Team performance leading into this game

Montréal Canadiens

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Colorado Avalanche

All Model Picks

Value Picks

Market Favourite

Forward trios & defense pairs

Montréal Canadiens

Colorado Avalanche

Expected starters

Every recorded goalie

Montréal Canadiens

Colorado Avalanche

Recent starting goalies

Recent expected goals

Team tendencies before this game

Hot & cold against the other team

Montréal Canadiens

Colorado Avalanche

Want the full picture?

Season and recent form

Last 10 head-to-head games