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Minnesota Wild vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 10, 2026.

November 10, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Minnesota Wild

12-3-4

45.9%
at
Home

Montréal Canadiens

11-3-3

54.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 54.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Minnesota Wild logo
Away team

Minnesota Wild

45.9%
Fair American +118
Fair decimal 2.18
Best market -118 · BetRivers
Market implied 54.1%
Edge -8.2%
Expected value -15.2%
Calculate value
Montréal Canadiens logo
Home team

Montréal Canadiens

54.1%
Fair American -118
Fair decimal 1.85
Best market +108 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 48.1%
Edge +6.0%
Expected value +12.5%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 10, 2026.

Minnesota Wild

All Model Picks

Bets
12
Record
9-3
Net units
2.86
ROI
23.8%

Value Picks

Bets
7
Record
3-4
Net units
-1.64
ROI
-23.4%

Market Favourite

Bets
13
Record
10-3
Net units
3.51
ROI
27.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

115:45 together · 10 games

xG share62.0%
Corsi for / against
136 / 97
Fenwick for / against
103 / 78
Corsi share
58.4%
Fenwick share
56.9%
xG for / against
8.26 / 5.06
Defense pair

127:05 together · 10 games

xG share52.5%
Corsi for / against
139 / 113
Fenwick for / against
98 / 84
Corsi share
55.2%
Fenwick share
53.8%
xG for / against
6.86 / 6.19
All observed combinations

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

127:27 together · 10 games

xG share45.3%
Corsi for / against
103 / 135
Fenwick for / against
80 / 100
Corsi share
43.3%
Fenwick share
44.4%
xG for / against
5.61 / 6.79
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Minnesota Wild

Jesper Wallstedt 93.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jesper Wallstedt?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.324
Days since last start
+0.483
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.412
Consecutive starts
+0.371
Started last game
+0.315
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 10, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Montréal Canadiens

Jacob Fowler 74.9%
Other eligible goalies

Why Jacob Fowler?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
-0.425
Goalie team start share
+0.395
Team win pct before
-0.393
Days since last start
+0.282
Won previous appearance
+0.242
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Nov 10, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Nov 10, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Calvin Pickard

Minnesota Wild · Last start: Nov 7

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
76
Save %
85.5
Goals allowed
11
Close-range shots %
21.1

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
184
Save %
93.5
Goals allowed
12
Close-range shots %
34.8
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

xG for / game
3.55
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.64

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.38
xG against / game
3.48
xG differential / game
-0.10

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Minnesota Wild

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.0
Corsi share (%)
51.4
Fenwick share (%)
52.1
Faceoff win %
46.3
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft

Montréal Canadiens

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.0
Corsi share (%)
47.8
Fenwick share (%)
49.0
Faceoff win %
52.4
Penalties / game
5.0

Shots / game: 27.1 · Shooting: 14.0% · Avg distance: 34.1 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Nov 10, 2026.

Minnesota Wild

Q. Hughes Hot · +0.92 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 2.00 points/game
1.08 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
8
Points
8
Shots / game
2.3
K. Kaprizov Hot · +0.74 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 2.00 points/game
1.26 points/game across 135 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
3
Points
6
Shots / game
3.0
B. Brink Hot · +0.53 P/GP

4 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 1.00 points/game
0.47 points/game across 162 games vs other opponents

Goals
3
Assists
1
Points
4
Shots / game
1.3
J. Eriksson Ek Cold · -0.39 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.33 points/game
0.73 points/game across 132 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
1.7
N. Foligno Hot · +0.30 P/GP

3 games vs Montréal Canadiens · 0.67 points/game
0.37 points/game across 133 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
0
Points
2
Shots / game
1.7

Montréal Canadiens

J. Slafkovský Cold · -0.78 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.00 points/game
0.78 points/game across 174 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.5
C. Caufield Cold · -0.73 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.25 points/game
0.98 points/game across 176 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.3
N. Suzuki Cold · -0.69 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.50 points/game
1.19 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
0.8
N. Dobson Hot · +0.45 P/GP

3 games vs Minnesota Wild · 1.00 points/game
0.55 points/game across 165 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.7
J. Evans Cold · -0.40 P/GP

4 games vs Minnesota Wild · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 163 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
28Points25
0.737Points %0.735
63Goals for61
43Goals against53
20Goal differential8
OT1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Minnesota Wild MIN road
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL home
12Games9
7Wins5
16Points12
12Goal differential-2
Last 10 games
Minnesota Wild MIN
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
6-1-3Record8-0-2
15Points18
35Goals for38
22Goals against26
13Goal differential12
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Minnesota Wild MIN 9 wins
10 games reviewed
Montréal Canadiens MTL 1 wins
Total goals40 – 16
Goal differential +24 / -24
Goals per game4.0 / 1.6
Shots per game28.8 / 25.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Feb 2, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
3 - 4 20 - 24 View
Jan 20, 2026
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 4 19 - 33 View
Jan 30, 2025
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 0 27 - 19 View
Nov 14, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
0 - 3 19 - 28 View
Dec 21, 2023
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
3 - 4 25 - 24 View
Oct 17, 2023
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
5 - 2 35 - 28 View
Nov 1, 2022
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
1 - 4 35 - 31 View
Oct 25, 2022
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 1 31 - 27 View
Apr 19, 2022
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 0 30 - 26 View
Jan 24, 2022
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
2 - 8 21 - 39 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings MIN MTL