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Edmonton Oilers vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 28, 2026

NHL matchup

Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 28, 2026.

December 28, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-2

55.4% Model pick
at
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

44.6%
Model V2 pick: Edmonton Oilers at 55.4%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Edmonton Oilers logo
Away team

Edmonton Oilers

55.4%
Fair American -124
Fair decimal 1.81
Calculate value
Washington Capitals logo
Home team

Washington Capitals

44.6%
Fair American +124
Fair decimal 2.24
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 28, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 28. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

143:36 together · 10 games

xG share40.0%
Corsi for / against
87 / 140
Fenwick for / against
61 / 99
Corsi share
38.3%
Fenwick share
38.1%
xG for / against
3.69 / 5.54
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Tristan Jarry

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 26

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
86.3
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
27.5

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.02
xG against / game
2.94
xG differential / game
0.09

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 28, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.9
Corsi share (%)
47.6
Fenwick share (%)
47.9
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.8

Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 15.4% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
18Points12
0.750Points %0.600
52Goals for34
43Goals against32
9Goal differential2
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Edmonton Oilers EDM road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
5Games7
5Wins5
10Points10
14Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
7-2-1Record6-4-0
15Points12
38Goals for34
30Goals against32
8Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Edmonton Oilers EDM 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 5 wins
Total goals42 – 38
Goal differential +4 / -4
Goals per game4.2 / 3.8
Shots per game32.5 / 28.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 24, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 6 27 - 40 View
Nov 19, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 7 30 - 22 View
Feb 23, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 7 25 - 35 View
Jan 21, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 2 14 - 32 View
Mar 13, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
2 - 7 25 - 37 View
Nov 24, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 0 35 - 25 View
Dec 5, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 2 50 - 30 View
Nov 7, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
4 - 5 29 - 31 View
Mar 9, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 4 32 - 40 View
Feb 2, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 3 27 - 27 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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