Away team
Edmonton Oilers
50.7%
Fair American
-103
Fair decimal
1.97
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 14, 2026
NHL matchup
Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 14, 2026.
November 14, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Edmonton Oilers at 50.7%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Toronto Maple Leafs
49.3%
Fair American
+103
Fair decimal
2.03
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 14, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 4-1
- Net units
- 1.39
- ROI
- 27.9%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Net units
- 1.84
- ROI
- 92.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 9
- Record
- 6-3
- Net units
- 0.93
- ROI
- 10.4%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 4-3
- Net units
- 1.65
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 4.60
- ROI
- 65.8%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 2-3
- Net units
- -1.55
- ROI
- -31.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
137:07 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 118 / 86
- Corsi share
- 60.7%
- Fenwick share
- 57.8%
- xG for / against
- 8.71 / 6.11
Defense pair
141:59 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 88 / 130
- Fenwick for / against
- 63 / 90
- Corsi share
- 40.4%
- Fenwick share
- 41.2%
- xG for / against
- 4.22 / 4.74
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
46:17 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 40 / 49
- Fenwick for / against
- 37 / 33
- Corsi share
- 44.9%
- Fenwick share
- 52.9%
- xG for / against
- 1.95 / 1.65
Defense pair
104:16 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 87 / 118
- Fenwick for / against
- 71 / 87
- Corsi share
- 42.4%
- Fenwick share
- 44.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.07 / 4.98
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Edmonton Oilers
Expected starter unavailable.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Tristan Jarry
Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 24
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 102
- Save %
- 85.3
- Goals allowed
- 15
- Close-range shots %
- 25.5
Anthony Stolarz
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 150
- Save %
- 90.7
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 31.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Edmonton Oilers
- xG for / game
- 3.09
- xG against / game
- 2.91
- xG differential / game
- 0.19
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.20
- xG against / game
- 3.44
- xG differential / game
- -0.24
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 14, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.1
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 24.4 · Shooting: 17.6% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.0
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.2
- Faceoff win %
- 53.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.2
Shots / game: 29.0 · Shooting: 15.2% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
EDM
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Points | 16 |
| 0.773 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 49 | Goals for | 50 |
| 39 | Goals against | 41 |
| 10 | Goal differential | 9 |
| L1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
EDM road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 8 |
| 5 | Wins | 4 |
| 10 | Points | 9 |
| 14 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
EDM
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 8-2-0 | Record | 6-2-2 |
| 16 | Points | 14 |
| 44 | Goals for | 44 |
| 33 | Goals against | 34 |
| 11 | Goal differential | 10 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
EDM
3 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
7 wins
Total goals34 – 44
Goal differential
-10
/
+10
Goals per game3.4 / 4.4
Shots per game34.2 / 29.1
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
7 - 2 | 31 - 32 | View |
| Feb 3, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
5 - 2 | 27 - 36 | View |
| Dec 13, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 3 | 37 - 28 | View |
| Feb 1, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
4 - 3 | 28 - 48 | View |
| Nov 16, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 4 | 30 - 22 | View |
| Mar 23, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
3 - 6 | 39 - 29 | View |
| Jan 16, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
2 - 4 | 27 - 32 | View |
| Mar 11, 2023 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 7 | 26 - 38 | View |
| Mar 1, 2023 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
2 - 5 | 28 - 32 | View |
| Jan 5, 2022 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
2 - 4 | 30 - 33 | View |