Away team
Edmonton Oilers
50.5%
Fair American
-102
Fair decimal
1.98
Edmonton Oilers vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 3, 2027
NHL matchup
Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 3, 2027.
January 3, 2027
· 2:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Edmonton Oilers at 50.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Pittsburgh Penguins
49.5%
Fair American
+102
Fair decimal
2.02
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 3, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 0.39
- ROI
- 6.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 2-0
- Net units
- 1.84
- ROI
- 92.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 10
- Record
- 6-4
- Net units
- -0.07
- ROI
- -0.7%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
138:11 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 159 / 104
- Fenwick for / against
- 119 / 86
- Corsi share
- 60.5%
- Fenwick share
- 58.0%
- xG for / against
- 8.70 / 6.01
Defense pair
143:36 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 87 / 140
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 99
- Corsi share
- 38.3%
- Fenwick share
- 38.1%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 5.54
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Edmonton Oilers
Expected starter unavailable.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Tristan Jarry
Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 131
- Save %
- 86.3
- Goals allowed
- 18
- Close-range shots %
- 27.5
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Edmonton Oilers
- xG for / game
- 3.02
- xG against / game
- 2.94
- xG differential / game
- 0.09
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 3, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Edmonton Oilers
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 52.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 47.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.9
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.8
Shots / game: 24.0 · Shooting: 15.4% · Avg distance: 32.0 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
EDM
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Points | 11 |
| 0.750 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 52 | Goals for | 40 |
| 43 | Goals against | 40 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 0 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
EDM road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 5 | Wins | 4 |
| 10 | Points | 8 |
| 14 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
EDM
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 7-2-1 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 15 | Points | 7 |
| 38 | Goals for | 27 |
| 30 | Goals against | 35 |
| 8 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
EDM
8 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
2 wins
Total goals48 – 24
Goal differential
+24
/
-24
Goals per game4.8 / 2.4
Shots per game38.2 / 29.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
6 - 2 | 22 - 32 | View |
| Dec 16, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
6 - 4 | 23 - 30 | View |
| Jan 9, 2025 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 5 | 43 - 26 | View |
| Oct 25, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
0 - 4 | 27 - 50 | View |
| Mar 10, 2024 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
4 - 0 | 42 - 41 | View |
| Mar 3, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
1 - 6 | 23 - 37 | View |
| Feb 23, 2023 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
7 - 2 | 44 - 24 | View |
| Oct 24, 2022 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
3 - 6 | 35 - 47 | View |
| Apr 26, 2022 |
Edmonton Oilers
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
5 - 1 | 42 - 34 | View |
| Dec 1, 2021 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Edmonton Oilers
|
2 - 5 | 34 - 22 | View |