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Edmonton Oilers vs Ottawa Senators prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 12, 2026

NHL matchup

Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 12, 2026.

December 12, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-1

53.8% Model pick
at
Home

Ottawa Senators

8-4-0

46.2%
Model V2 pick: Edmonton Oilers at 53.8%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Edmonton Oilers logo
Away team

Edmonton Oilers

53.8%
Fair American -116
Fair decimal 1.86
Calculate value
Ottawa Senators logo
Home team

Ottawa Senators

46.2%
Fair American +116
Fair decimal 2.16
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 12, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

141:59 together · 10 games

xG share47.1%
Corsi for / against
88 / 130
Fenwick for / against
63 / 90
Corsi share
40.4%
Fenwick share
41.2%
xG for / against
4.22 / 4.74
All observed combinations

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

39:23 together · 8 games

xG share47.8%
Corsi for / against
35 / 53
Fenwick for / against
25 / 39
Corsi share
39.8%
Fenwick share
39.1%
xG for / against
1.87 / 2.05
Defense pair

70:48 together · 9 games

xG share65.9%
Corsi for / against
84 / 68
Fenwick for / against
58 / 39
Corsi share
55.3%
Fenwick share
59.8%
xG for / against
4.13 / 2.14
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Tristan Jarry

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 24

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
102
Save %
85.3
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
25.5

Jonas Johansson

Ottawa Senators · Last start: Oct 24

1 / 1 appearances covered

Shots faced
28
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
4
Close-range shots %
39.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.09
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Ottawa Senators

xG for / game
2.85
xG against / game
2.77
xG differential / game
0.07

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 12, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.8
Corsi share (%)
47.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.5
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 24.4 · Shooting: 17.6% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Ottawa Senators

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.6
Corsi share (%)
48.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.9
Faceoff win %
52.3
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 25.2 · Shooting: 11.5% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
17Points16
0.773Points %0.667
49Goals for38
39Goals against34
10Goal differential4
L1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Edmonton Oilers EDM road
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT home
5Games7
5Wins5
10Points10
14Goal differential1
Last 10 games
Edmonton Oilers EDM
Metric
Ottawa Senators OTT
8-2-0Record6-4-0
16Points12
44Goals for31
33Goals against31
11Goal differential0
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Edmonton Oilers EDM 7 wins
10 games reviewed
Ottawa Senators OTT 3 wins
Total goals40 – 30
Goal differential +10 / -10
Goals per game4.0 / 3.0
Shots per game34.5 / 25.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 3, 2026
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
4 - 5 21 - 37 View
Oct 21, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 2 25 - 21 View
Dec 22, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
1 - 3 21 - 21 View
Nov 19, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
5 - 2 31 - 29 View
Mar 24, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
3 - 5 36 - 16 View
Jan 6, 2024
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
1 - 3 30 - 46 View
Mar 14, 2023
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 6 32 - 33 View
Feb 11, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
6 - 3 40 - 29 View
Jan 31, 2022
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators
2 - 3 39 - 31 View
Jan 15, 2022
Ottawa Senators Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
6 - 4 26 - 37 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings EDM OTT