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Detroit Red Wings vs Edmonton Oilers prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 26, 2026

NHL matchup

Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 26, 2026.

October 26, 2026 · 8:30 PM CST
Away

Detroit Red Wings

5-4-3

4
Final
Home

Edmonton Oilers

8-2-2

3 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Edmonton Oilers at 57.1% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Detroit Red Wings logo
Away team

Detroit Red Wings

42.9%
Fair American +133
Fair decimal 2.33
Best market +155 · BetRivers
Market implied 39.2%
Edge +3.7%
Expected value +9.4%
Calculate value
Edmonton Oilers logo
Home team

Edmonton Oilers

57.1%
Fair American -133
Fair decimal 1.75
Best market -173 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 63.4%
Edge -6.3%
Expected value -9.9%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 26, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 26. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

100:07 together · 10 games

xG share53.5%
Corsi for / against
105 / 87
Fenwick for / against
73 / 51
Corsi share
54.7%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
3.75 / 3.26
All observed combinations

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

141:59 together · 10 games

xG share47.1%
Corsi for / against
88 / 130
Fenwick for / against
63 / 90
Corsi share
40.4%
Fenwick share
41.2%
xG for / against
4.22 / 4.74
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Detroit Red Wings

John Gibson 43.0%
Other eligible goalies

Why John Gibson?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.563
Prev save pct
-0.424
Started last game
-0.294
Team win pct before
+0.243
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.214
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Edmonton Oilers

Devon Levi 81.2%
Other eligible goalies

Why Devon Levi?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.728
Goalie win pct before
+0.478
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.474
Prev save pct
-0.395
Days since last start
+0.324
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 26, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

John Gibson

Detroit Red Wings · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
116
Save %
84.5
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
30.2

Tristan Jarry

Edmonton Oilers · Last start: Oct 24

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
102
Save %
85.3
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
25.5
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

xG for / game
3.46
xG against / game
3.15
xG differential / game
0.32

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Edmonton Oilers

xG for / game
3.09
xG against / game
2.91
xG differential / game
0.19

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 26, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Detroit Red Wings

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.7
Corsi share (%)
53.3
Fenwick share (%)
54.1
Faceoff win %
49.4
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 30.7 · Shooting: 9.1% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Edmonton Oilers

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.8
Corsi share (%)
47.9
Fenwick share (%)
48.5
Faceoff win %
49.1
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 24.4 · Shooting: 17.6% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
13Points18
0.542Points %0.750
33Goals for52
37Goals against43
-4Goal differential9
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Detroit Red Wings DET road
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM home
5Games7
2Wins3
6Points8
-1Goal differential-5
Last 10 games
Detroit Red Wings DET
Metric
Edmonton Oilers EDM
5-2-3Record7-2-1
13Points15
31Goals for38
32Goals against30
-1Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Detroit Red Wings DET 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Edmonton Oilers EDM 6 wins
Total goals32 – 40
Goal differential -8 / +8
Goals per game3.2 / 4.0
Shots per game29.9 / 34.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 11, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
1 - 4 28 - 29 View
Oct 19, 2025
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 18 - 25 View
Jan 30, 2025
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
3 - 2 35 - 47 View
Oct 27, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 34 - 26 View
Feb 13, 2024
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
4 - 8 38 - 36 View
Jan 11, 2024
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
3 - 2 47 - 18 View
Feb 15, 2023
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 4 23 - 45 View
Feb 7, 2023
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
5 - 2 27 - 32 View
Mar 15, 2022
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
5 - 7 35 - 32 View
Nov 9, 2021
Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
2 - 4 33 - 39 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings DET EDM