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Chicago Blackhawks vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 4, 2026

NHL matchup

Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 4, 2026.

December 4, 2026 · 8:00 PM MBT
Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4-13-1

36.0%
at
Home

St. Louis Blues

7-8-2

64.0% Model pick
Model V2 pick: St. Louis Blues at 64.0%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Chicago Blackhawks logo
Away team

Chicago Blackhawks

36.0%
Fair American +178
Fair decimal 2.78
Calculate value
St. Louis Blues logo
Home team

St. Louis Blues

64.0%
Fair American -178
Fair decimal 1.56
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 4, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 4. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

110:39 together · 10 games

xG share29.7%
Corsi for / against
86 / 116
Fenwick for / against
61 / 93
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
39.6%
xG for / against
3.37 / 7.95
All observed combinations

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

73:04 together · 10 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
61 / 79
Fenwick for / against
47 / 54
Corsi share
43.6%
Fenwick share
46.5%
xG for / against
2.97 / 2.92
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 4, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Spencer Knight

Chicago Blackhawks · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
129
Save %
86.0
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
39.5

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Nov 7

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
155
Save %
91.6
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
27.1
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 4, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

xG for / game
2.58
xG against / game
3.73
xG differential / game
-1.15

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.78
xG against / game
3.02
xG differential / game
-0.24

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 4, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Chicago Blackhawks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
52.6
Corsi share (%)
47.5
Fenwick share (%)
45.1
Faceoff win %
40.2
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 23.9 · Shooting: 7.5% · Avg distance: 32.9 ft

St. Louis Blues

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
55.0
Corsi share (%)
48.0
Fenwick share (%)
47.0
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
2.3

Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 9.0% · Avg distance: 31.2 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 4, 2026.

Chicago Blackhawks

P. Kane Cold · -0.83 P/GP

3 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.00 points/game
0.83 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
2.0
A. Mangiapane Hot · +0.51 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.80 points/game
0.29 points/game across 143 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.0
C. Bedard Hot · +0.46 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 1.40 points/game
0.94 points/game across 157 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
7
Points
7
Shots / game
2.6
R. Donato Cold · -0.35 P/GP

5 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.20 points/game
0.55 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.6
O. Moore Hot · +0.34 P/GP

3 games vs St. Louis Blues · 0.67 points/game
0.32 points/game across 74 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
1
Points
2
Shots / game
1.0

St. Louis Blues

R. Thomas Cold · -0.66 P/GP

5 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.40 points/game
1.06 points/game across 143 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
1.6
A. Toropchenko Hot · +0.62 P/GP

5 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.80 points/game
0.18 points/game across 147 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
2
Points
4
Shots / game
1.6
J. Snuggerud Cold · -0.48 P/GP

4 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.25 points/game
0.73 points/game across 90 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
0
Points
1
Shots / game
2.8
C. McMichael Hot · +0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 1.00 points/game
0.62 points/game across 172 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
3
Points
5
Shots / game
3.8
J. Neighbours Hot · +0.26 P/GP

5 games vs Chicago Blackhawks · 0.80 points/game
0.54 points/game across 160 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
3
Points
4
Shots / game
0.6
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL
9Points16
0.250Points %0.471
39Goals for50
76Goals against53
-37Goal differential-3
L4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Chicago Blackhawks CHI road
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL home
9Games7
0Wins4
1Points9
-29Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Chicago Blackhawks CHI
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL
1-8-1Record4-5-1
3Points9
18Goals for25
44Goals against30
-26Goal differential-5
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Chicago Blackhawks CHI 3 wins
10 games reviewed
St. Louis Blues STL 7 wins
Total goals39 – 44
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game3.9 / 4.4
Shots per game26.6 / 29.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 6, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
2 - 4 28 - 21 View
Apr 11, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
5 - 3 28 - 34 View
Jan 7, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
3 - 7 30 - 35 View
Dec 12, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 3 29 - 26 View
Oct 15, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
8 - 3 29 - 26 View
Mar 22, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
1 - 4 27 - 25 View
Feb 8, 2025
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
5 - 6 21 - 40 View
Dec 31, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
6 - 2 28 - 30 View
Apr 10, 2024
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 5 20 - 26 View
Dec 23, 2023
Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
5 - 7 20 - 42 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings CHI STL