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Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 15, 2026

NHL matchup

Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 15, 2026.

October 15, 2026 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Calgary Flames

4-6-0

2
Final
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

6 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 64.7% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Calgary Flames logo
Away team

Calgary Flames

35.3%
Fair American +183
Fair decimal 2.83
Best market +275 · BetRivers
Market implied 26.7%
Edge +8.6%
Expected value +32.4%
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

64.7%
Fair American -183
Fair decimal 1.55
Best market -310 · Bovada
Market implied 75.6%
Edge -10.9%
Expected value -14.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 15, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%

Value Picks

Bets
6
Record
1-5
Net units
-3.50
ROI
-58.3%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Calgary Flames

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

77:08 together · 6 games

xG share43.8%
Corsi for / against
75 / 99
Fenwick for / against
56 / 74
Corsi share
43.1%
Fenwick share
43.1%
xG for / against
3.20 / 4.11
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

8 / 8 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

84:56 together · 8 games

xG share65.5%
Corsi for / against
91 / 70
Fenwick for / against
69 / 47
Corsi share
56.5%
Fenwick share
59.5%
xG for / against
4.25 / 2.24
Defense pair

118:15 together · 8 games

xG share63.5%
Corsi for / against
137 / 103
Fenwick for / against
98 / 73
Corsi share
57.1%
Fenwick share
57.3%
xG for / against
6.94 / 3.99
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Calgary Flames

Dustin Wolf 66.3%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dustin Wolf?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.562
Goalie team start share
+0.442
Started last game
-0.287
Won previous appearance
+0.265
Prev save pct
+0.264
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Vegas Golden Knights

Carter Hart 86.1%
Other eligible goalies

Why Carter Hart?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
+0.518
Days since last start
+0.197
Won previous appearance
-0.175
Goalie team start share
+0.173
Consecutive starts
+0.151
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 15, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dustin Wolf

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 13

4 / 4 appearances covered

Shots faced
112
Save %
83.9
Goals allowed
18
Close-range shots %
34.8

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 13

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
72
Save %
90.3
Goals allowed
7
Close-range shots %
30.6
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.72
xG against / game
3.13
xG differential / game
-0.41

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
2.49
xG differential / game
1.04

8 / 8 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 15, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
69.0
Corsi share (%)
53.6
Fenwick share (%)
51.5
Faceoff win %
49.9
Penalties / game
4.67

Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 6.8% · Avg distance: 33.3 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

8 / 8 games covered

Attempts / game
62.6
Corsi share (%)
54.6
Fenwick share (%)
55.1
Faceoff win %
52.0
Penalties / game
3.38

Shots / game: 30.8 · Shooting: 11.8% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Calgary Flames CGY
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
8Points17
0.400Points %0.654
23Goals for47
39Goals against38
-16Goal differential9
W3Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Calgary Flames CGY road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
4Games7
1Wins5
2Points10
-10Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Calgary Flames CGY
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
4-6-0Record6-3-1
8Points13
23Goals for36
39Goals against30
-16Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Calgary Flames CGY 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 6 wins
Total goals26 – 36
Goal differential -10 / +10
Goals per game2.6 / 3.6
Shots per game26.5 / 34.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 2, 2026
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 6 22 - 34 View
Dec 20, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 6 37 - 26 View
Oct 18, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 6 27 - 28 View
Oct 14, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 2 30 - 29 View
Apr 15, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 5 42 - 28 View
Apr 5, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 2 34 - 23 View
Dec 29, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
0 - 3 31 - 37 View
Oct 28, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
0 - 5 16 - 38 View
Mar 14, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
1 - 4 29 - 37 View
Jan 13, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 1 26 - 32 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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