Away team
Calgary Flames
36.8%
Fair American
+172
Fair decimal
2.72
Calgary Flames vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 17, 2026
NHL matchup
Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 17, 2026.
December 17, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 63.2%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
63.2%
Fair American
-172
Fair decimal
1.58
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 17, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 5-6
- Net units
- 1.73
- ROI
- 15.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
60:08 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 69 / 51
- Fenwick for / against
- 52 / 37
- Corsi share
- 57.5%
- Fenwick share
- 58.4%
- xG for / against
- 2.64 / 1.96
Defense pair
113:54 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 126 / 94
- Fenwick for / against
- 93 / 71
- Corsi share
- 57.3%
- Fenwick share
- 56.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.69 / 4.86
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 26
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 163
- Save %
- 92.0
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 27.6
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.71
- xG against / game
- 3.20
- xG differential / game
- -0.48
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 61.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.2
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.7
- Faceoff win %
- 48.5
- Penalties / game
- 4.5
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 9.1% · Avg distance: 34.2 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
CGY
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Points | 15 |
| 0.455 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 28 | Goals for | 38 |
| 41 | Goals against | 34 |
| -13 | Goal differential | 4 |
| W4 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
CGY road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Games | 5 |
| 1 | Wins | 5 |
| 2 | Points | 10 |
| -10 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
CGY
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 5-5-0 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 10 | Points | 15 |
| 27 | Goals for | 37 |
| 35 | Goals against | 29 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
CGY
5 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
5 wins
Total goals30 – 36
Goal differential
-6
/
+6
Goals per game3.0 / 3.6
Shots per game30.1 / 27.3
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 4 | 35 - 29 | View |
| Nov 26, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 5 | 32 - 23 | View |
| Feb 27, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
0 - 3 | 28 - 22 | View |
| Dec 12, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
8 - 3 | 26 - 22 | View |
| Mar 7, 2024 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
6 - 3 | 24 - 22 | View |
| Dec 16, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 4 | 33 - 26 | View |
| Jan 21, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 6 | 24 - 41 | View |
| Nov 17, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 40 - 24 | View |
| Mar 10, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Calgary Flames
|
1 - 4 | 31 - 32 | View |
| Jan 6, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 27 - 33 | View |