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Calgary Flames vs Anaheim Ducks prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 8:45 PM CST
Away

Calgary Flames

5-7-0

4
Final
Home

Anaheim Ducks

5-6-1

2 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Anaheim Ducks at 55.2% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Calgary Flames logo
Away team

Calgary Flames

44.8%
Fair American +123
Fair decimal 2.23
Best market +150 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 40.0%
Edge +4.8%
Expected value +12.0%
Calculate value
Anaheim Ducks logo
Home team

Anaheim Ducks

55.2%
Fair American -123
Fair decimal 1.81
Best market -169 · MyBookie.ag
Market implied 62.8%
Edge -7.6%
Expected value -12.1%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

Calgary Flames

All Model Picks

Bets
2
Record
0-2
Net units
-2.00
ROI
-100.0%

Value Picks

Bets
5
Record
0-5
Net units
-5.00
ROI
-100.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
0-1
Net units
-1.00
ROI
-100.0%
Full team betting results

Anaheim Ducks

All Model Picks

Bets
4
Record
3-1
Net units
2.07
ROI
51.7%

Value Picks

Bets
4
Record
3-1
Net units
2.88
ROI
72.0%

Market Favourite

Bets
1
Record
1-0
Net units
0.85
ROI
84.7%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Calgary Flames

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

30:45 together · 4 games

xG share48.4%
Corsi for / against
48 / 31
Fenwick for / against
29 / 20
Corsi share
60.8%
Fenwick share
59.2%
xG for / against
1.74 / 1.86
Defense pair

66:29 together · 5 games

xG share42.1%
Corsi for / against
64 / 80
Fenwick for / against
47 / 60
Corsi share
44.4%
Fenwick share
43.9%
xG for / against
2.60 / 3.58
All observed combinations

Anaheim Ducks

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

37:41 together · 5 games

xG share57.1%
Corsi for / against
33 / 38
Fenwick for / against
21 / 24
Corsi share
46.5%
Fenwick share
46.7%
xG for / against
1.77 / 1.33
Defense pair

55:36 together · 5 games

xG share39.4%
Corsi for / against
42 / 58
Fenwick for / against
31 / 41
Corsi share
42.0%
Fenwick share
43.1%
xG for / against
1.77 / 2.73
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Calgary Flames

Dustin Wolf 56.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Dustin Wolf?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team win pct before
+0.576
Goalie team start share
+0.461
Started last game
-0.311
Goalie win pct before
-0.251
Prev save pct
-0.224
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Anaheim Ducks

Lukas Dostal 82.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Lukas Dostal?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.127
Appearances last 5 goalie rows
+0.467
Days since last start
+0.401
Started last game
+0.273
Consecutive starts
+0.264
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Dustin Wolf

Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 10

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
87
Save %
81.6
Goals allowed
16
Close-range shots %
37.9

Ville Husso

Anaheim Ducks · Last start: Oct 10

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
31
Save %
93.5
Goals allowed
2
Close-range shots %
32.3
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

xG for / game
2.54
xG against / game
3.12
xG differential / game
-0.58

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Anaheim Ducks

xG for / game
2.82
xG against / game
3.12
xG differential / game
-0.30

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Calgary Flames

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
68.2
Corsi share (%)
53.8
Fenwick share (%)
51.5
Faceoff win %
48.4
Penalties / game
4.2

Shots / game: 28.0 · Shooting: 5.7% · Avg distance: 33.5 ft

Anaheim Ducks

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
51.6
Corsi share (%)
45.9
Fenwick share (%)
47.3
Faceoff win %
45.8
Penalties / game
4.0

Shots / game: 23.2 · Shooting: 15.5% · Avg distance: 34.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Calgary Flames CGY
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
10Points11
0.417Points %0.458
28Goals for37
45Goals against43
-17Goal differential-6
L1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Calgary Flames CGY road
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA home
5Games5
1Wins1
2Points3
-14Goal differential-7
Last 10 games
Calgary Flames CGY
Metric
Anaheim Ducks ANA
5-5-0Record3-6-1
10Points7
26Goals for30
35Goals against38
-9Goal differential-8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Calgary Flames CGY 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Anaheim Ducks ANA 5 wins
Total goals34 – 28
Goal differential +6 / -6
Goals per game3.4 / 2.8
Shots per game30.6 / 28.8
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 10, 2026
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 2 28 - 29 View
Apr 4, 2026
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
5 - 3 20 - 39 View
Mar 26, 2026
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
3 - 2 33 - 25 View
Mar 1, 2026
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
2 - 3 34 - 36 View
Jan 25, 2026
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
4 - 3 21 - 35 View
Apr 9, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 4 39 - 23 View
Apr 3, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
1 - 4 27 - 34 View
Jan 30, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
1 - 4 31 - 30 View
Jan 7, 2025
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 2 33 - 28 View
Apr 12, 2024
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
6 - 3 27 - 22 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings CGY ANA