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Buffalo Sabres vs Montréal Canadiens prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 13, 2026

NHL matchup

Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 13, 2026.

October 13, 2026 · 5:30 PM CST
Away

Buffalo Sabres

4-4-3

3
Final
Home

Montréal Canadiens

6-3-2

4 Model pick
Model V2 pick: Montréal Canadiens at 53.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Buffalo Sabres logo
Away team

Buffalo Sabres

47.0%
Fair American +113
Fair decimal 2.13
Best market +135 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 42.6%
Edge +4.4%
Expected value +10.5%
Calculate value
Montréal Canadiens logo
Home team

Montréal Canadiens

53.0%
Fair American -113
Fair decimal 1.89
Best market -153 · BetOnline.ag
Market implied 60.5%
Edge -7.5%
Expected value -12.4%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 13, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres

All Model Picks

Bets
5
Record
3-2
Net units
0.34
ROI
6.8%

Value Picks

Bets
3
Record
1-2
Net units
-1.07
ROI
-35.5%

Market Favourite

Bets
3
Record
2-1
Net units
0.38
ROI
12.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Buffalo Sabres

6 / 6 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

60:21 together · 6 games

xG share68.6%
Corsi for / against
72 / 31
Fenwick for / against
50 / 22
Corsi share
69.9%
Fenwick share
69.4%
xG for / against
3.48 / 1.59
Defense pair

66:09 together · 6 games

xG share50.4%
Corsi for / against
61 / 49
Fenwick for / against
45 / 38
Corsi share
55.5%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.69 / 2.65
All observed combinations

Montréal Canadiens

5 / 5 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

37:26 together · 5 games

xG share37.0%
Corsi for / against
23 / 39
Fenwick for / against
14 / 32
Corsi share
37.1%
Fenwick share
30.4%
xG for / against
1.20 / 2.04
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Buffalo Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 91.7%
Other eligible goalies

Why Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Team played yesterday
+0.847
Started last game
+0.415
Days since last start
+0.326
Goalie team start share
+0.314
Won previous appearance
+0.279
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Montréal Canadiens

Jakub Dobes 50.1%
Other eligible goalies
  • Jacob Fowler49.9%

Why Jakub Dobes?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.606
Prev save pct
-0.328
Started last game
+0.290
Days since last start
+0.272
Goalie win pct before
-0.206
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 13, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Colten Ellis

Buffalo Sabres · Last start: Oct 12

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
59
Save %
86.4
Goals allowed
8
Close-range shots %
30.5

Jacob Fowler

Montréal Canadiens · Last start: Oct 10

2 / 2 appearances covered

Shots faced
48
Save %
93.8
Goals allowed
3
Close-range shots %
29.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
3.00
xG differential / game
0.32

6 / 6 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Montréal Canadiens

xG for / game
3.10
xG against / game
3.04
xG differential / game
0.05

5 / 5 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 13, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Buffalo Sabres

6 / 6 games covered

Attempts / game
59.7
Corsi share (%)
54.2
Fenwick share (%)
54.1
Faceoff win %
47.2
Penalties / game
3.67

Shots / game: 27.3 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 30.4 ft

Montréal Canadiens

5 / 5 games covered

Attempts / game
60.6
Corsi share (%)
53.1
Fenwick share (%)
51.6
Faceoff win %
53.9
Penalties / game
5.4

Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 10.6% · Avg distance: 32.7 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
11Points14
0.500Points %0.636
31Goals for36
41Goals against36
-10Goal differential0
OT1Current streakW2
Road versus home
Buffalo Sabres BUF road
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL home
5Games6
1Wins3
5Points7
-5Goal differential-3
Last 10 games
Buffalo Sabres BUF
Metric
Montréal Canadiens MTL
4-3-3Record5-3-2
11Points12
28Goals for33
35Goals against34
-7Goal differential-1
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Buffalo Sabres BUF 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Montréal Canadiens MTL 6 wins
Total goals33 – 37
Goal differential -4 / +4
Goals per game3.3 / 3.7
Shots per game27.5 / 28.2
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 31, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 2 31 - 38 View
Jan 22, 2026
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
4 - 2 17 - 34 View
Jan 15, 2026
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
3 - 5 23 - 27 View
Oct 20, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
2 - 4 32 - 31 View
Mar 3, 2025
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 4 36 - 20 View
Mar 1, 2025
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
4 - 2 29 - 25 View
Dec 17, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
1 - 6 21 - 27 View
Nov 11, 2024
Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
7 - 5 23 - 18 View
Feb 21, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
3 - 2 23 - 31 View
Jan 4, 2024
Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens Montréal Canadiens
6 - 1 38 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BUF MTL