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Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 10, 2026

NHL matchup

Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 10, 2026.

December 10, 2026 · 7:00 PM MBT
Away

Boston Bruins

13-4-1

40.9%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

11-4-2

59.1% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 59.1%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

59.1%
Fair American -144
Fair decimal 1.69
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 10, 2026.

Boston Bruins

All Model Picks

Bets
11
Record
9-2
Net units
5.21
ROI
47.4%

Value Picks

Bets
10
Record
6-4
Net units
1.51
ROI
15.1%

Market Favourite

Bets
8
Record
8-0
Net units
5.88
ROI
73.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 10. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

101:43 together · 9 games

xG share52.7%
Corsi for / against
77 / 102
Fenwick for / against
66 / 75
Corsi share
43.0%
Fenwick share
46.8%
xG for / against
5.88 / 5.27
Defense pair

144:02 together · 10 games

xG share64.0%
Corsi for / against
139 / 110
Fenwick for / against
105 / 72
Corsi share
55.8%
Fenwick share
59.3%
xG for / against
7.51 / 4.22
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

81:42 together · 9 games

xG share62.2%
Corsi for / against
90 / 60
Fenwick for / against
68 / 42
Corsi share
60.0%
Fenwick share
61.8%
xG for / against
4.41 / 2.68
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Season goaltending

Every recorded goalie

Regular-season records for each team in 2026–27, before Dec 10, 2026. Includes recorded backups. Games played require ice time; stats cover only games with this team.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Jeremy Swayman

Boston Bruins · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
140
Save %
90.7
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
35.7

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Nov 8

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
128
Save %
88.3
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
31.2
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

xG for / game
3.26
xG against / game
3.21
xG differential / game
0.05

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
3.05
xG differential / game
0.50

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 10, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Boston Bruins

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.9
Corsi share (%)
48.8
Fenwick share (%)
49.7
Faceoff win %
57.8
Penalties / game
4.9

Shots / game: 28.1 · Shooting: 13.2% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
64.3
Corsi share (%)
55.4
Fenwick share (%)
54.6
Faceoff win %
51.7
Penalties / game
3.5

Shots / game: 29.7 · Shooting: 14.1% · Avg distance: 32.6 ft

Skaters versus this opponent

Hot & cold against the other team

Up to five skaters per team, ranked by the largest change in points per game against this opponent versus other opponents. Uses the last five meetings per player within this season and the previous two seasons, before Dec 10, 2026.

Boston Bruins

D. Pastrnak Cold · -0.93 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.40 points/game
1.33 points/game across 169 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
2
Points
2
Shots / game
2.8
F. Minten Cold · -0.44 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.00 points/game
0.44 points/game across 115 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.6
M. Lohrei Cold · -0.40 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.00 points/game
0.40 points/game across 161 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.8
H. Lindholm Cold · -0.38 P/GP

3 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.00 points/game
0.38 points/game across 99 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
1.0
N. Zadorov Cold · -0.27 P/GP

5 games vs Tampa Bay Lightning · 0.00 points/game
0.27 points/game across 171 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
0
Points
0
Shots / game
0.6

Tampa Bay Lightning

B. Point Cold · -0.77 P/GP

5 games vs Boston Bruins · 0.20 points/game
0.97 points/game across 151 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
1
Points
1
Shots / game
1.6
R. McDonagh Hot · +0.44 P/GP

5 games vs Boston Bruins · 0.80 points/game
0.36 points/game across 139 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
0.8
G. Goncalves Hot · +0.44 P/GP

5 games vs Boston Bruins · 0.80 points/game
0.36 points/game across 143 games vs other opponents

Goals
0
Assists
4
Points
4
Shots / game
0.6
N. Kucherov Cold · -0.41 P/GP

5 games vs Boston Bruins · 1.20 points/game
1.61 points/game across 164 games vs other opponents

Goals
2
Assists
4
Points
6
Shots / game
3.4
E. Lilleberg Hot · +0.38 P/GP

5 games vs Boston Bruins · 0.60 points/game
0.22 points/game across 125 games vs other opponents

Goals
1
Assists
2
Points
3
Shots / game
1.4
How hot and cold are measuredSample requirements, player selection and limitations

Hot means a higher points-per-game rate against this opponent; cold means a lower rate. The comparison uses other opponents over the same three-season window. Only players whose most recent recorded team this season matches this matchup are considered; this does not confirm tonight's lineup. History includes appearances for former teams. Players with no meaningful rate difference are omitted from the highlights; the full breakdown includes them. These small, unadjusted historical samples describe past production, not a forecast or a statistically established matchup advantage.

Want the full picture?

See every recorded skater from both teams, including players with limited opponent history.

View all players vs opponent →
Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
27Points24
0.750Points %0.706
68Goals for63
41Goals against53
27Goal differential10
W4Current streakL1
Road versus home
Boston Bruins BOS road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
9Games8
5Wins8
11Points16
5Goal differential16
Last 10 games
Boston Bruins BOS
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
7-2-1Record6-2-2
15Points14
38Goals for42
23Goals against34
15Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Boston Bruins BOS 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 8 wins
Total goals26 – 33
Goal differential -7 / +7
Goals per game2.6 / 3.3
Shots per game26.0 / 31.3
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Apr 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 1 24 - 20 View
Apr 4, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 22 - 23 View
Feb 1, 2026
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 6 34 - 46 View
Oct 13, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
4 - 3 23 - 33 View
Mar 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
6 - 2 40 - 12 View
Mar 8, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
4 - 0 25 - 25 View
Jan 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
2 - 6 45 - 24 View
Jan 9, 2025
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 4 28 - 31 View
Mar 27, 2024
Boston Bruins Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 24 - 31 View
Feb 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins Boston Bruins
3 - 2 25 - 38 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings BOS TBL