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Anaheim Ducks vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 18, 2027

NHL matchup

Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 18, 2027.

February 18, 2027 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Anaheim Ducks

5-6-0

33.8%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

66.2% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 66.2%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

66.2%
Fair American -196
Fair decimal 1.51
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Feb 18, 2027.

Anaheim Ducks

All Model Picks

Bets
6
Record
4-2
Net units
2.13
ROI
35.5%

Value Picks

Bets
5
Record
4-1
Net units
3.94
ROI
78.8%

Market Favourite

Bets
2
Record
1-1
Net units
-0.15
ROI
-7.6%
Full team betting results

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 18. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Anaheim Ducks

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

40:52 together · 6 games

xG share59.0%
Corsi for / against
38 / 38
Fenwick for / against
25 / 24
Corsi share
50.0%
Fenwick share
51.0%
xG for / against
2.17 / 1.50
Defense pair

86:16 together · 10 games

xG share36.5%
Corsi for / against
77 / 88
Fenwick for / against
54 / 64
Corsi share
46.7%
Fenwick share
45.8%
xG for / against
3.41 / 5.93
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Lukas Dostal

Anaheim Ducks · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
131
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
15
Close-range shots %
32.1

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Anaheim Ducks

xG for / game
2.91
xG against / game
3.60
xG differential / game
-0.70

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 18, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Anaheim Ducks

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
56.4
Corsi share (%)
48.6
Fenwick share (%)
48.7
Faceoff win %
44.7
Penalties / game
4.6

Shots / game: 23.9 · Shooting: 11.7% · Avg distance: 32.3 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Anaheim Ducks ANA
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
10Points15
0.455Points %0.682
32Goals for38
37Goals against34
-5Goal differential4
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Anaheim Ducks ANA road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
7Games5
4Wins5
8Points10
1Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Anaheim Ducks ANA
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
4-6-0Record7-2-1
8Points15
28Goals for37
34Goals against29
-6Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Anaheim Ducks ANA 2 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 8 wins
Total goals27 – 36
Goal differential -9 / +9
Goals per game2.7 / 3.6
Shots per game29.0 / 34.0
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Dec 31, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
4 - 3 29 - 28 View
Oct 25, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 40 - 33 View
Jan 16, 2025
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 37 - 35 View
Jan 5, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
1 - 4 37 - 26 View
Mar 24, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
3 - 2 27 - 32 View
Jan 13, 2024
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 5 20 - 41 View
Feb 21, 2023
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 6 25 - 44 View
Oct 26, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
4 - 2 30 - 21 View
Apr 14, 2022
Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
3 - 4 26 - 31 View
Jan 21, 2022
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks Anaheim Ducks
1 - 5 33 - 35 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings ANA TBL