Away team
Winnipeg Jets
39.5%
Fair American
+153
Fair decimal
2.53
Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 29, 2026
NHL matchup
Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 29, 2026.
October 29, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Tampa Bay Lightning at 60.5%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Tampa Bay Lightning
60.5%
Fair American
-153
Fair decimal
1.65
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 29, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 5
- Record
- 1-4
- Net units
- -3.07
- ROI
- -61.5%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 2-5
- Net units
- -1.82
- ROI
- -26.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 1-3
- Net units
- -2.07
- ROI
- -51.9%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 5-1
- Net units
- 1.45
- ROI
- 24.2%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 0
- Record
- 0-0
- Net units
- 0.00
- ROI
- —
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 1.06
- ROI
- 13.3%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 29. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
137:51 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 158 / 124
- Fenwick for / against
- 120 / 97
- Corsi share
- 56.0%
- Fenwick share
- 55.3%
- xG for / against
- 7.87 / 6.99
Defense pair
118:31 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 120 / 97
- Fenwick for / against
- 88 / 71
- Corsi share
- 55.3%
- Fenwick share
- 55.3%
- xG for / against
- 5.38 / 4.83
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
95:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 85 / 83
- Fenwick for / against
- 64 / 59
- Corsi share
- 50.6%
- Fenwick share
- 52.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.69 / 3.31
Defense pair
123:37 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 154 / 103
- Fenwick for / against
- 114 / 80
- Corsi share
- 59.9%
- Fenwick share
- 58.8%
- xG for / against
- 7.27 / 4.55
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Winnipeg Jets
Stuart Skinner
60.0%
Other eligible goalies
- Nico Daws34.9%
- Clay Stevenson5.1%
Why Stuart Skinner?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.867
Started last game
+0.431
Team win pct before
+0.414
Days since last start
+0.380
Consecutive starts
+0.198
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Oct 28, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy
87.5%
Other eligible goalies
- Dennis Hildeby12.5%
Why Andrei Vasilevskiy?
Top five influences
Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+1.049
Prev save pct
-0.486
Rolling 5 game avg save pct
-0.356
Goalie win pct before
+0.351
Started last game
+0.270
About these predictions
Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.
SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.
Updated Oct 28, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Clay Stevenson
Winnipeg Jets · Last start: Oct 27
4 / 4 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 108
- Save %
- 87.0
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 38.9
Dennis Hildeby
Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 78
- Save %
- 88.5
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 35.9
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Winnipeg Jets
- xG for / game
- 2.86
- xG against / game
- 3.31
- xG differential / game
- -0.45
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- xG for / game
- 3.56
- xG against / game
- 2.79
- xG differential / game
- 0.77
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 29, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Winnipeg Jets
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.4
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.8
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.5
- Faceoff win %
- 45.5
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.4 · Shooting: 8.3% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft
Tampa Bay Lightning
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 63.5
- Corsi share (%)
- 55.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 55.6
- Faceoff win %
- 49.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.7
Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WPG
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Points | 15 |
| 0.458 | Points % | 0.682 |
| 28 | Goals for | 38 |
| 36 | Goals against | 34 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 4 |
| L2 | Current streak | OT1 |
Road versus home
|
WPG road
|
Metric |
TBL home
|
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Games | 5 |
| 2 | Wins | 5 |
| 6 | Points | 10 |
| -1 | Goal differential | 9 |
Last 10 games
|
WPG
|
Metric |
TBL
|
|---|---|---|
| 3-5-2 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 8 | Points | 15 |
| 22 | Goals for | 37 |
| 30 | Goals against | 29 |
| -8 | Goal differential | 8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WPG
7 wins
10
games reviewed
TBL
3 wins
Total goals38 – 32
Goal differential
+6
/
-6
Goals per game3.8 / 3.2
Shots per game26.4 / 31.4
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
1 - 4 | 27 - 30 | View |
| Jan 29, 2026 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 23 - 37 | View |
| Nov 14, 2024 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
1 - 4 | 24 - 29 | View |
| Nov 3, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
4 - 7 | 30 - 34 | View |
| Jan 2, 2024 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
2 - 4 | 34 - 28 | View |
| Nov 22, 2023 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 32 - 33 | View |
| Mar 12, 2023 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
3 - 2 | 22 - 35 | View |
| Jan 6, 2023 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
2 - 4 | 28 - 20 | View |
| Apr 16, 2022 |
Winnipeg Jets
at
Tampa Bay Lightning
|
4 - 7 | 18 - 37 | View |
| Mar 8, 2022 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
at
Winnipeg Jets
|
4 - 7 | 24 - 33 | View |