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Washington Capitals vs Vegas Golden Knights prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 30, 2027

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 30, 2027.

January 30, 2027 · 9:00 PM CST
Away

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

32.5%
at
Home

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

67.5% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 67.5%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

32.5%
Fair American +208
Fair decimal 3.08
Calculate value
Vegas Golden Knights logo
Home team

Vegas Golden Knights

67.5%
Fair American -208
Fair decimal 1.48
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 30, 2027.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

107:16 together · 10 games

xG share64.5%
Corsi for / against
113 / 85
Fenwick for / against
83 / 58
Corsi share
57.1%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
5.90 / 3.25
Defense pair

154:42 together · 10 games

xG share64.6%
Corsi for / against
179 / 131
Fenwick for / against
132 / 92
Corsi share
57.7%
Fenwick share
58.9%
xG for / against
9.12 / 4.99
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 24

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
125
Save %
88.8
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
32.0
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.32
xG against / game
2.74
xG differential / game
0.58

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 30, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
59.3
Corsi share (%)
51.6
Fenwick share (%)
52.5
Faceoff win %
49.4
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
12Points17
0.600Points %0.654
34Goals for47
32Goals against38
2Goal differential9
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK home
3Games7
1Wins5
2Points10
-1Goal differential8
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
6-4-0Record6-3-1
12Points13
34Goals for36
32Goals against30
2Goal differential6
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 5 wins
10 games reviewed
Vegas Golden Knights VGK 5 wins
Total goals28 – 28
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game2.8 / 2.8
Shots per game25.6 / 31.1
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Mar 28, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 4 21 - 29 View
Feb 27, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 3 26 - 30 View
Nov 17, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 2 25 - 42 View
Oct 15, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 26 - 22 View
Dec 2, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 4 22 - 36 View
Nov 14, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
0 - 3 35 - 31 View
Jan 21, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 6 22 - 27 View
Nov 1, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 2 31 - 21 View
Apr 20, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 28 - 30 View
Jan 24, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 0 29 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
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