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Washington Capitals vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 17, 2026

NHL matchup

Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 17, 2026.

November 17, 2026 · 6:30 PM CST
Away

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

32.3%
at
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

7-3-1

67.7% Model pick
Model V2 pick: Tampa Bay Lightning at 67.7%
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Washington Capitals logo
Away team

Washington Capitals

32.3%
Fair American +210
Fair decimal 3.1
Calculate value
Tampa Bay Lightning logo
Home team

Tampa Bay Lightning

67.7%
Fair American -210
Fair decimal 1.48
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 17, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

41:39 together · 6 games

xG share62.6%
Corsi for / against
41 / 38
Fenwick for / against
32 / 27
Corsi share
51.9%
Fenwick share
54.2%
xG for / against
2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair

87:35 together · 10 games

xG share48.6%
Corsi for / against
78 / 105
Fenwick for / against
61 / 80
Corsi share
42.6%
Fenwick share
43.3%
xG for / against
4.29 / 4.54
All observed combinations

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

123:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.5%
Corsi for / against
154 / 103
Fenwick for / against
114 / 80
Corsi share
59.9%
Fenwick share
58.8%
xG for / against
7.27 / 4.55
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Charlie Lindgren

Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
79
Save %
88.6
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
25.3

Dennis Hildeby

Tampa Bay Lightning · Last start: Oct 24

3 / 3 appearances covered

Shots faced
78
Save %
88.5
Goals allowed
9
Close-range shots %
35.9
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.53
xG against / game
3.37
xG differential / game
0.16

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Tampa Bay Lightning

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.79
xG differential / game
0.77

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 17, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
46.4
Fenwick share (%)
47.8
Faceoff win %
50.2
Penalties / game
4.4

Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft

Tampa Bay Lightning

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
63.5
Corsi share (%)
55.1
Fenwick share (%)
55.6
Faceoff win %
49.5
Penalties / game
3.7

Shots / game: 31.1 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 32.4 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
12Points15
0.600Points %0.682
34Goals for38
32Goals against34
2Goal differential4
W1Current streakOT1
Road versus home
Washington Capitals WSH road
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL home
3Games5
1Wins5
2Points10
-1Goal differential9
Last 10 games
Washington Capitals WSH
Metric
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL
6-4-0Record7-2-1
12Points15
34Goals for37
32Goals against29
2Goal differential8
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Washington Capitals WSH 4 wins
10 games reviewed
Tampa Bay Lightning TBL 6 wins
Total goals25 – 30
Goal differential -5 / +5
Goals per game2.5 / 3.0
Shots per game28.8 / 23.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Oct 3, 2026
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
1 - 3 21 - 30 View
Nov 22, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
5 - 3 16 - 32 View
Nov 8, 2025
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
2 - 3 30 - 20 View
Oct 14, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 3 19 - 28 View
Mar 1, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 1 19 - 21 View
Nov 27, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 4 32 - 28 View
Oct 26, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
0 - 3 32 - 21 View
Apr 13, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 34 - 34 View
Feb 22, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
5 - 3 24 - 32 View
Dec 23, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 1 20 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings WSH TBL