Away team
Washington Capitals
34.7%
Fair American
+188
Fair decimal
2.88
Washington Capitals vs Calgary Flames prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for December 5, 2026
NHL matchup
Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for December 5, 2026.
December 5, 2026
· 2:30 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Calgary Flames at 65.3%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Calgary Flames
65.3%
Fair American
-188
Fair decimal
1.53
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Dec 5, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 6-2
- Net units
- 2.30
- ROI
- 28.7%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 1-2
- Net units
- -0.25
- ROI
- -8.3%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 5-7
- Net units
- 0.73
- ROI
- 6.1%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 1
- Record
- 0-1
- Net units
- -1.00
- ROI
- -100.0%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Washington Capitals
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsCalgary Flames
This selection is unavailable until complete validated shift records cover every selected game.
All observed combinationsAmbiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Calgary Flames
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Logan Thompson
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 88.7
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 31.0
Devin Cooley
Calgary Flames · Last start: Oct 28
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 142
- Save %
- 95.1
- Goals allowed
- 7
- Close-range shots %
- 28.2
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.52
- xG against / game
- 3.20
- xG differential / game
- 0.33
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Calgary Flames
- xG for / game
- 2.71
- xG against / game
- 3.21
- xG differential / game
- -0.50
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Dec 5, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 48.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 49.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.1
- Penalties / game
- 4.1
Shots / game: 27.8 · Shooting: 12.2% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft
Calgary Flames
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 60.7
- Corsi share (%)
- 49.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 48.0
- Faceoff win %
- 48.6
- Penalties / game
- 4.0
Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 8.8% · Avg distance: 33.9 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
WSH
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Points | 10 |
| 0.636 | Points % | 0.417 |
| 39 | Goals for | 28 |
| 34 | Goals against | 45 |
| 5 | Goal differential | -17 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
Road versus home
|
WSH road
|
Metric |
CGY home
|
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Games | 7 |
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 2 | Points | 8 |
| -1 | Goal differential | -3 |
Last 10 games
|
WSH
|
Metric |
CGY
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-4-0 | Record | 5-5-0 |
| 12 | Points | 10 |
| 34 | Goals for | 26 |
| 32 | Goals against | 35 |
| 2 | Goal differential | -9 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
WSH
7 wins
10
games reviewed
CGY
3 wins
Total goals35 – 25
Goal differential
+10
/
-10
Goals per game3.5 / 2.5
Shots per game27.9 / 31.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 |
Calgary Flames
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 7 | 26 - 29 | View |
| Jan 23, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 1 | 38 - 26 | View |
| Feb 25, 2025 |
Calgary Flames
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 1 | 25 - 27 | View |
| Jan 28, 2025 |
Washington Capitals
at
Calgary Flames
|
3 - 1 | 23 - 33 | View |
| Mar 18, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Calgary Flames
|
5 - 2 | 33 - 36 | View |
| Oct 16, 2023 |
Calgary Flames
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 40 - 23 | View |
| Dec 3, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
Calgary Flames
|
2 - 5 | 29 - 36 | View |
| Nov 25, 2022 |
Calgary Flames
at
Washington Capitals
|
0 - 3 | 32 - 25 | View |
| Mar 8, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
Calgary Flames
|
5 - 4 | 27 - 35 | View |
| Oct 23, 2021 |
Calgary Flames
at
Washington Capitals
|
4 - 3 | 27 - 25 | View |