Away team
Vegas Golden Knights
47.0%
Fair American
+113
Fair decimal
2.13
Vegas Golden Knights vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 12, 2027
NHL matchup
Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 12, 2027.
January 12, 2027
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Washington Capitals at 53.0%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Washington Capitals
53.0%
Fair American
-113
Fair decimal
1.89
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Jan 12, 2027.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 8-4
- Net units
- 0.54
- ROI
- 4.5%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.27
- ROI
- 8.9%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 13
- Record
- 9-4
- Net units
- 0.91
- ROI
- 7.0%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 6
- Record
- 4-2
- Net units
- 1.42
- ROI
- 23.6%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 3
- Record
- 2-1
- Net units
- 0.96
- ROI
- 32.0%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 7
- Record
- 5-2
- Net units
- 1.86
- ROI
- 26.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
110:03 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 111 / 86
- Fenwick for / against
- 82 / 60
- Corsi share
- 56.3%
- Fenwick share
- 57.7%
- xG for / against
- 5.56 / 3.40
Defense pair
156:41 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 177 / 133
- Fenwick for / against
- 136 / 94
- Corsi share
- 57.1%
- Fenwick share
- 59.1%
- xG for / against
- 9.01 / 5.04
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
41:39 together · 6 games
- Corsi for / against
- 41 / 38
- Fenwick for / against
- 32 / 27
- Corsi share
- 51.9%
- Fenwick share
- 54.2%
- xG for / against
- 2.56 / 1.53
Defense pair
87:35 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 105
- Fenwick for / against
- 61 / 80
- Corsi share
- 42.6%
- Fenwick share
- 43.3%
- xG for / against
- 4.29 / 4.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Vegas Golden Knights
Expected starter unavailable.
Washington Capitals
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Adin Hill
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 27
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 133
- Save %
- 89.5
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 38.3
Charlie Lindgren
Washington Capitals · Last start: Oct 24
3 / 3 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 79
- Save %
- 88.6
- Goals allowed
- 9
- Close-range shots %
- 25.3
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.23
- xG against / game
- 2.77
- xG differential / game
- 0.46
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Washington Capitals
- xG for / game
- 3.53
- xG against / game
- 3.37
- xG differential / game
- 0.16
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 12, 2027. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.0
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.6
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.5
- Faceoff win %
- 49.3
- Penalties / game
- 3.2
Shots / game: 29.4 · Shooting: 11.2% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Washington Capitals
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 54.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 46.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 47.8
- Faceoff win %
- 50.2
- Penalties / game
- 4.4
Shots / game: 27.5 · Shooting: 12.4% · Avg distance: 31.5 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
VGK
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Points | 12 |
| 0.679 | Points % | 0.600 |
| 51 | Goals for | 34 |
| 39 | Goals against | 32 |
| 12 | Goal differential | 2 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
Road versus home
|
VGK road
|
Metric |
WSH home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 7 |
| 3 | Wins | 5 |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 1 | Goal differential | 3 |
Last 10 games
|
VGK
|
Metric |
WSH
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 6-4-0 |
| 13 | Points | 12 |
| 34 | Goals for | 34 |
| 29 | Goals against | 32 |
| 5 | Goal differential | 2 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
VGK
5 wins
10
games reviewed
WSH
5 wins
Total goals28 – 28
Goal differential
0
/
0
Goals per game2.8 / 2.8
Shots per game31.1 / 25.6
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 |
Washington Capitals
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
5 - 4 | 21 - 29 | View |
| Feb 27, 2026 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 3 | 26 - 30 | View |
| Nov 17, 2024 |
Washington Capitals
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
5 - 2 | 25 - 42 | View |
| Oct 15, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Washington Capitals
|
2 - 4 | 26 - 22 | View |
| Dec 2, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
1 - 4 | 22 - 36 | View |
| Nov 14, 2023 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Washington Capitals
|
0 - 3 | 35 - 31 | View |
| Jan 21, 2023 |
Washington Capitals
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 6 | 22 - 27 | View |
| Nov 1, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Washington Capitals
|
3 - 2 | 31 - 21 | View |
| Apr 20, 2022 |
Washington Capitals
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
3 - 4 | 28 - 30 | View |
| Jan 24, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Washington Capitals
|
1 - 0 | 29 - 34 | View |