Skip to content

Vegas Golden Knights vs Washington Capitals prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for February 27, 2026

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for February 27, 2026.

February 27, 2026 · 6:00 PM CST
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

2
Final
Home

Washington Capitals

6-4-0

3
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game. View final boxscore
Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 27. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

68:24 together · 9 games

xG share62.3%
Corsi for / against
66 / 65
Fenwick for / against
45 / 42
Corsi share
50.4%
Fenwick share
51.7%
xG for / against
3.88 / 2.35
Defense pair

134:36 together · 8 games

xG share47.3%
Corsi for / against
117 / 136
Fenwick for / against
77 / 93
Corsi share
46.2%
Fenwick share
45.3%
xG for / against
4.53 / 5.05
All observed combinations

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

61:34 together · 9 games

xG share56.6%
Corsi for / against
69 / 60
Fenwick for / against
55 / 36
Corsi share
53.5%
Fenwick share
60.4%
xG for / against
3.97 / 3.04
Defense pair

64:37 together · 7 games

xG share51.3%
Corsi for / against
71 / 57
Fenwick for / against
52 / 42
Corsi share
55.5%
Fenwick share
55.3%
xG for / against
3.36 / 3.19
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Feb 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
133
Save %
85.7
Goals allowed
19
Close-range shots %
28.6

Logan Thompson

Washington Capitals · Last start: Feb 25

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
39.7
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.20
xG against / game
2.67
xG differential / game
0.53

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Washington Capitals

xG for / game
3.44
xG against / game
3.33
xG differential / game
0.11

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Feb 27, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
57.5
Corsi share (%)
50.0
Fenwick share (%)
50.3
Faceoff win %
51.6
Penalties / game
2.5

Shots / game: 27.7 · Shooting: 13.0% · Avg distance: 31.7 ft

Washington Capitals

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
61.2
Corsi share (%)
50.0
Fenwick share (%)
50.4
Faceoff win %
51.9
Penalties / game
3.9

Shots / game: 29.4 · Shooting: 10.9% · Avg distance: 32.5 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
17Points12
0.654Points %0.600
47Goals for34
38Goals against32
9Goal differential2
OT1Current streakW1
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH home
6Games7
3Wins5
7Points10
1Goal differential3
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
Washington Capitals WSH
6-3-1Record6-4-0
13Points12
36Goals for34
30Goals against32
6Goal differential2
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 6 wins
10 games reviewed
Washington Capitals WSH 4 wins
Total goals27 – 27
Goal differential 0 / 0
Goals per game2.7 / 2.7
Shots per game31.7 / 26.6
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Nov 17, 2024
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 2 25 - 42 View
Oct 15, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 4 26 - 22 View
Dec 2, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
1 - 4 22 - 36 View
Nov 14, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
0 - 3 35 - 31 View
Jan 21, 2023
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 6 22 - 27 View
Nov 1, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
3 - 2 31 - 21 View
Apr 20, 2022
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 28 - 30 View
Jan 24, 2022
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
1 - 0 29 - 34 View
Feb 17, 2020
Washington Capitals Washington Capitals at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 3 27 - 29 View
Nov 9, 2019
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
2 - 5 32 - 34 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK WSH