Forward trio
110:17 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 106 / 98
- Fenwick for / against
- 68 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.0%
- Fenwick share
- 49.3%
- xG for / against
- 5.35 / 4.04
Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for January 23, 2026
NHL matchup
Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for January 23, 2026.
January 23, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 prediction is not available yet for this game.
View final boxscore
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Defense pair
107:42 together · 8 games
- Corsi for / against
- 93 / 96
- Fenwick for / against
- 60 / 69
- Corsi share
- 49.2%
- Fenwick share
- 46.5%
- xG for / against
- 4.05 / 3.82
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
94:38 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 78 / 115
- Fenwick for / against
- 58 / 91
- Corsi share
- 40.4%
- Fenwick share
- 38.9%
- xG for / against
- 4.33 / 5.43
Defense pair
86:37 together · 9 games
- Corsi for / against
- 79 / 107
- Fenwick for / against
- 54 / 75
- Corsi share
- 42.5%
- Fenwick share
- 41.9%
- xG for / against
- 3.74 / 4.10
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Akira Schmid
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Jan 22
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 125
- Save %
- 90.4
- Goals allowed
- 12
- Close-range shots %
- 36.0
Joseph Woll
Toronto Maple Leafs · Last start: Jan 21
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 166
- Save %
- 90.4
- Goals allowed
- 16
- Close-range shots %
- 30.1
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.14
- xG against / game
- 2.54
- xG differential / game
- 0.60
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
- xG for / game
- 3.09
- xG against / game
- 3.60
- xG differential / game
- -0.51
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Jan 23, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 56.1
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.4
- Fenwick share (%)
- 51.5
- Faceoff win %
- 45.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.5
Shots / game: 28.3 · Shooting: 14.8% · Avg distance: 31.0 ft
Toronto Maple Leafs
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 53.8
- Corsi share (%)
- 43.1
- Fenwick share (%)
- 43.6
- Faceoff win %
- 56.5
- Penalties / game
- 3.5
Shots / game: 26.9 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 33.8 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
VGK
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Points | 16 |
| 0.654 | Points % | 0.615 |
| 47 | Goals for | 50 |
| 38 | Goals against | 41 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 9 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W4 |
Road versus home
|
VGK road
|
Metric |
TOR home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 8 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 9 |
| 1 | Goal differential | -1 |
Last 10 games
|
VGK
|
Metric |
TOR
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 6-2-2 |
| 13 | Points | 14 |
| 36 | Goals for | 44 |
| 30 | Goals against | 34 |
| 6 | Goal differential | 10 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
VGK
6 wins
10
games reviewed
TOR
4 wins
Total goals34 – 33
Goal differential
+1
/
-1
Goals per game3.4 / 3.3
Shots per game29.7 / 29.5
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
5 - 6 | 28 - 33 | View |
| Mar 5, 2025 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 5 | 31 - 25 | View |
| Nov 20, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 3 | 31 - 26 | View |
| Feb 27, 2024 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
6 - 2 | 32 - 30 | View |
| Feb 22, 2024 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
7 - 3 | 42 - 26 | View |
| Nov 8, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
4 - 3 | 20 - 31 | View |
| Oct 24, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
1 - 3 | 23 - 33 | View |
| Jan 11, 2022 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
4 - 3 | 18 - 34 | View |
| Nov 2, 2021 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Toronto Maple Leafs
|
0 - 4 | 26 - 33 | View |
| Nov 19, 2019 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 4 | 33 - 37 | View |