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Vegas Golden Knights vs St. Louis Blues prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for October 22, 2026

NHL matchup

Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues

View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for October 22, 2026.

October 22, 2026 · 7:00 PM CST
Away

Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1

2 Model pick
Final
Home

St. Louis Blues

5-5-1

6
Model V2 pick: Vegas Golden Knights at 52.0% View final boxscore
Prediction

Model V2 versus market

Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.

Vegas Golden Knights logo
Away team

Vegas Golden Knights

52.0%
Fair American -108
Fair decimal 1.92
Best market -120 · BetUS
Market implied 54.5%
Edge -2.5%
Expected value -4.7%
Calculate value
St. Louis Blues logo
Home team

St. Louis Blues

48.0%
Fair American +108
Fair decimal 2.08
Best market +110 · Bovada
Market implied 47.6%
Edge +0.4%
Expected value +0.8%
Calculate value
Simulated betting results

Team performance leading into this game

Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Oct 22, 2026.

This game and later dates are excluded.

Recent usage

Forward trios & defense pairs

Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Forward trio

102:02 together · 10 games

xG share64.4%
Corsi for / against
101 / 86
Fenwick for / against
74 / 56
Corsi share
54.0%
Fenwick share
56.9%
xG for / against
5.44 / 3.00
Defense pair

147:37 together · 10 games

xG share61.7%
Corsi for / against
167 / 129
Fenwick for / against
123 / 92
Corsi share
56.4%
Fenwick share
57.2%
xG for / against
8.96 / 5.56
All observed combinations

St. Louis Blues

9 / 9 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes

Defense pair

94:04 together · 9 games

xG share54.5%
Corsi for / against
88 / 71
Fenwick for / against
63 / 60
Corsi share
55.3%
Fenwick share
51.2%
xG for / against
5.22 / 4.35
All observed combinations

Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.

Goalie predictions

Expected starters

Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.

Vegas Golden Knights

Adin Hill 72.8%
Other eligible goalies

Why Adin Hill?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Started last game
+0.406
Goalie team start share
-0.397
Goalie win pct before
+0.286
Team played yesterday
-0.239
Team win pct before
-0.229
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

St. Louis Blues

Joel Hofer 90.5%
Other eligible goalies

Why Joel Hofer?

Top five influences

Raises the scoreLowers the score
Goalie team start share
+0.772
Started last game
-0.308
Won previous appearance
+0.293
Prev save pct
+0.289
Team win pct before
+0.267
About these predictions

Values are SHAP contributions in log-odds. Bar lengths show relative strength within this goalie’s top five factors.

SHAP shows the strongest influences on this goalie's raw starter score compared with the model's baseline. These are not percentage-point changes to the displayed share or proof of causation. Eligibility exclusions and other goalies also affect the displayed share.

Updated Oct 22, 5:02 AM Winnipeg time

Goalie context

Recent starting goalies

Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.

Carter Hart

Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 20

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
132
Save %
89.4
Goals allowed
14
Close-range shots %
33.3

Joel Hofer

St. Louis Blues · Last start: Oct 20

5 / 5 appearances covered

Shots faced
136
Save %
90.4
Goals allowed
13
Close-range shots %
32.4
Pregame context · xG V1

Recent expected goals

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

xG for / game
3.56
xG against / game
2.69
xG differential / game
0.87

10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

St. Louis Blues

xG for / game
2.97
xG against / game
2.74
xG differential / game
0.22

9 / 9 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.

Recent play-by-play

Team tendencies before this game

Last 10 completed regular-season games before Oct 22, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.

Vegas Golden Knights

10 / 10 games covered

Attempts / game
60.5
Corsi share (%)
53.1
Fenwick share (%)
53.3
Faceoff win %
50.7
Penalties / game
3.6

Shots / game: 29.6 · Shooting: 12.8% · Avg distance: 32.1 ft

St. Louis Blues

9 / 9 games covered

Attempts / game
54.8
Corsi share (%)
50.4
Fenwick share (%)
48.1
Faceoff win %
48.8
Penalties / game
3.78

Shots / game: 26.2 · Shooting: 12.3% · Avg distance: 32.8 ft

Team comparison

Season and recent form

Season overview
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL
17Points11
0.654Points %0.500
47Goals for35
38Goals against35
9Goal differential0
OT1Current streakL1
Road versus home
Vegas Golden Knights VGK road
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL home
6Games5
3Wins3
7Points7
1Goal differential2
Last 10 games
Vegas Golden Knights VGK
Metric
St. Louis Blues STL
6-3-1Record4-5-1
13Points9
36Goals for31
30Goals against35
6Goal differential-4
History

Last 10 head-to-head games

Vegas Golden Knights VGK 7 wins
10 games reviewed
St. Louis Blues STL 3 wins
Total goals37 – 26
Goal differential +11 / -11
Goals per game3.7 / 2.6
Shots per game32.2 / 24.9
Date Matchup Score Shots Details
Jan 10, 2026
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 4 19 - 25 View
Jan 2, 2026
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
3 - 4 24 - 19 View
Nov 15, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 1 34 - 23 View
Jan 23, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
4 - 2 31 - 17 View
Jan 20, 2025
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
5 - 4 28 - 32 View
Oct 11, 2024
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
3 - 4 22 - 28 View
Mar 25, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
2 - 1 34 - 32 View
Dec 6, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
6 - 3 49 - 29 View
Dec 4, 2023
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights
2 - 1 27 - 34 View
Mar 12, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues
5 - 3 31 - 33 View
This matchup prediction is generated using playerWON’s Model V2, incorporating team performance, recent form, and home/away effects. View full model performance to compare results across games.
Daily edge board Best odds Full schedule Standings VGK STL