Away team
Vegas Golden Knights
45.1%
Fair American
+122
Fair decimal
2.22
Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction, odds, win probability, and matchup analysis for November 3, 2026
NHL matchup
Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins
View the PlayerWON Model V2 prediction, fair odds, market comparison, team performance, and recent head-to-head history for November 3, 2026.
November 3, 2026
· 6:00 PM CST
Model V2 pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins at 54.9%
Prediction
Model V2 versus market
Compare PlayerWON win probabilities with fair odds and available market data.
Home team
Pittsburgh Penguins
54.9%
Fair American
-122
Fair decimal
1.82
Simulated betting results
Team performance leading into this game
Model V2 · One-unit bets backing each team before Nov 3, 2026.
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 7-4
- Net units
- -0.11
- ROI
- -1.0%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 2
- Record
- 1-1
- Net units
- -0.39
- ROI
- -19.3%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 12
- Record
- 8-4
- Net units
- 0.25
- ROI
- 2.1%
All Model Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 5-3
- Net units
- 2.59
- ROI
- 32.4%
Value Picks
- Bets
- 8
- Record
- 4-4
- Net units
- 0.85
- ROI
- 10.7%
Market Favourite
- Bets
- 4
- Record
- 2-2
- Net units
- -0.38
- ROI
- -9.5%
This game and later dates are excluded.
Recent usage
Forward trios & defense pairs
Most-used five-on-five trio and defense pair from each team's last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3. Historical usage, not confirmed lines for this matchup.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
107:16 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 113 / 85
- Fenwick for / against
- 83 / 58
- Corsi share
- 57.1%
- Fenwick share
- 58.9%
- xG for / against
- 5.90 / 3.25
Defense pair
154:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 179 / 132
- Fenwick for / against
- 132 / 93
- Corsi share
- 57.6%
- Fenwick share
- 58.7%
- xG for / against
- 9.12 / 5.00
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered · Minimum 5 shared minutes
Forward trio
62:36 together · 7 games
- Corsi for / against
- 62 / 60
- Fenwick for / against
- 44 / 50
- Corsi share
- 50.8%
- Fenwick share
- 46.8%
- xG for / against
- 3.72 / 4.52
Defense pair
83:42 together · 10 games
- Corsi for / against
- 96 / 88
- Fenwick for / against
- 70 / 70
- Corsi share
- 52.2%
- Fenwick share
- 50.0%
- xG for / against
- 3.95 / 5.54
Ambiguous events and unreliable intervals are excluded. xG requires complete current scoring for each contributing game. These summaries do not change the model prediction.
Goalie predictions
Expected starters
Estimated starting chances among eligible goalies. These are model predictions, not confirmed starters.
Vegas Golden Knights
Expected starter unavailable.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected starter unavailable.
Goalie context
Recent starting goalies
Each team's last recorded starter before this matchup. These are not confirmed or projected starters for this game. Results cover their last 5 appearances before the matchup.
Carter Hart
Vegas Golden Knights · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 125
- Save %
- 88.8
- Goals allowed
- 14
- Close-range shots %
- 32.0
Arturs Silovs
Pittsburgh Penguins · Last start: Oct 24
5 / 5 appearances covered
- Shots faced
- 138
- Save %
- 90.6
- Goals allowed
- 13
- Close-range shots %
- 32.6
Pregame context · xG V1
Recent expected goals
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
- xG for / game
- 3.32
- xG against / game
- 2.74
- xG differential / game
- 0.58
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Pittsburgh Penguins
- xG for / game
- 3.15
- xG against / game
- 3.33
- xG differential / game
- -0.18
10 / 10 selected games fully scored. Historical chance quality, not a forecast of this game's goals.
Recent play-by-play
Team tendencies before this game
Last 10 completed regular-season games before Nov 3, 2026. This game and later dates are excluded.
Vegas Golden Knights
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 59.3
- Corsi share (%)
- 51.5
- Fenwick share (%)
- 52.4
- Faceoff win %
- 49.4
- Penalties / game
- 3.6
Shots / game: 29.3 · Shooting: 11.9% · Avg distance: 33.0 ft
Pittsburgh Penguins
10 / 10 games covered
- Attempts / game
- 57.9
- Corsi share (%)
- 50.9
- Fenwick share (%)
- 50.1
- Faceoff win %
- 46.6
- Penalties / game
- 2.9
Shots / game: 26.5 · Shooting: 9.8% · Avg distance: 31.3 ft
Team comparison
Season and recent form
Season overview
|
VGK
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Points | 11 |
| 0.654 | Points % | 0.458 |
| 47 | Goals for | 40 |
| 38 | Goals against | 40 |
| 9 | Goal differential | 0 |
| OT1 | Current streak | W2 |
Road versus home
|
VGK road
|
Metric |
PIT home
|
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Games | 5 |
| 3 | Wins | 4 |
| 7 | Points | 8 |
| 1 | Goal differential | 6 |
Last 10 games
|
VGK
|
Metric |
PIT
|
|---|---|---|
| 6-3-1 | Record | 3-6-1 |
| 13 | Points | 7 |
| 36 | Goals for | 27 |
| 30 | Goals against | 35 |
| 6 | Goal differential | -8 |
History
Last 10 head-to-head games
VGK
5 wins
10
games reviewed
PIT
5 wins
Total goals31 – 28
Goal differential
+3
/
-3
Goals per game3.1 / 2.8
Shots per game29.9 / 28.8
| Date | Matchup | Score | Shots | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 6 | 24 - 19 | View |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 6 | 26 - 17 | View |
| Mar 1, 2026 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 5 | 22 - 22 | View |
| Mar 11, 2025 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 3 | 37 - 17 | View |
| Mar 7, 2025 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
0 - 4 | 22 - 27 | View |
| Jan 20, 2024 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 3 | 25 - 29 | View |
| Nov 19, 2023 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
0 - 3 | 38 - 32 | View |
| Jan 5, 2023 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
at
Vegas Golden Knights
|
2 - 5 | 40 - 31 | View |
| Dec 1, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
3 - 4 | 37 - 47 | View |
| Mar 11, 2022 |
Vegas Golden Knights
at
Pittsburgh Penguins
|
2 - 5 | 42 - 33 | View |